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FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils prediction

FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils prediction for the Virsliga on 25 Oct 2026: BFC Daugavpils or draw (70%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Virsliga · Regular Season - 34
FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
0 - 1Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 0-0
Olympic Sports Center of Zemgale, Jelgava

Match events

FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
  1. 24'Yellow card: Ziad Ouled-Haj-M'Hand
  2. 43'Yellow card: Gļebs Mihaļcovs
  3. 45+1'Yellow card: eseme william mukwelle

HT 0-0

  1. 78'Goal: Kader abdoul traore
  2. Substitution: Ādams DreimanisOff: rihards becers81'
  3. Substitution: Milos PudilOff: Emils Smaukstelis87'

Our verdict

X2 ✓

BFC Daugavpils or draw

Bet365 1.33

70%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 0-1

Expected goals2.8

Win probability

1 · FS Jelgava30%
Fair odds 3.33
X · Draw27%
Fair odds 3.70
2 · BFC Daugavpils43%
Fair odds 2.33

Match statistics

  • 52%Possession48%
  • 1.35Expected goals (xG)1.63
  • 12Total shots11
  • 7Shots on target6
  • 4Shots off target4
  • 1Blocked shots1
  • 8Shots inside the box8
  • 3Corners8
  • 0Offsides3
  • 7Fouls13
  • 0Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 5Goalkeeper saves7
  • 485Passes381
  • 370Accurate passes285

Line-ups

FS Jelgava

5-4-1

Starting XI

  1. 1A. DvorakG
  2. 13J. NovikovsD
  3. 23Ā. DreimanisM
  4. 27K. AļekseičiksD
  5. 4A. KangarsD
  6. 22M. PudilM
  7. 29G. ŽaleikoM
  8. 11M. HašekM
  9. 8R. MeļķisF
  10. 24Filip HašekM
  11. 17T. RatajF

Substitutes

  1. 18E. SmaukstelisF
  2. 9R. BečersF
  3. 2Kristians BernansM
  4. 7Arturs JanovskisF
  5. 21G. KačanovsD
  6. 16T. LeitisG
  7. 20G. PatikaF
  8. 19A. PētersonsD
  9. 28A. DeklavsM

Coach: Aleksandrs Basovs

BFC Daugavpils

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 12J. BeksG
  2. 37Gļebs MihaļcovsD
  3. 5Omar GningueD
  4. 20Ceti Junior Taty TchibindaM
  5. 34Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
  6. 10E. IvanovsM
  7. 4W. MukwelleF
  8. 11J. YakubuM
  9. 19E. PinaskinsF
  10. 9A. TraoreF
  11. 97D. KiwindaF

Substitutes

  1. 8R. SkrebelsM
  2. 58Vladislavs RazumejevsG
  3. 27M. KopilovsF
  4. 33D. CucursD
  5. 66K. BujanovsD
  6. 6Ņ. BarkovskisM
  7. 3D. AyebadiepreyeF
  8. 77R. AizupsD

Coach: K. Kurbatovs

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.54
0.5 goalsOver93.9%Under6.1%
1.5 goalsOver76.9%Under23.1%
2.5 goalsOver53.1%Under46.9%
3.5 goalsOver30.8%Under69.2%
4.5 goalsOver15.2%Under84.8%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
0%Form100%
0%Attack100%
25%Defence75%
50%Head to head50%
45%Expected goals55%
41%Overall59%

Last matches

Newest first
FS Jelgava0W 0D 1L · last 1
LFK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava18 Oct 2026 · Virsliga3-0
BFC Daugavpils1W 0D 0L · last 1
WBFC Daugavpils vs Auda19 Oct 2026 · Virsliga2-1

Virsliga table

Virsliga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Rīgas FS4+1212
2BFC Daugavpils3+49
3Auda3+36
4FK Liepaja3+35
5Riga2+34
6Ogre United2-31
7Tukums3-41
8Super Nova3-71
9FS Jelgava3-50
10Grobiņa2-60
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatFS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
Played11
Wins01
Draws00
Losses10
Goals for (avg)02
Goals against (avg)31
Clean sheets00
Failed to score10
Best win streak01

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.51/11/1
Over 2.51/11/1
Over 3.50/10/1
BTTS – yes0/11/1

Match preview

FS Jelgava host BFC Daugavpils in the Virsliga (Regular Season - 34) at Olympic Sports Center of Zemgale, Jelgava, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 13:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes BFC Daugavpils slight favourites, giving FS Jelgava a 30% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 43% for BFC Daugavpils. Our tip is: BFC Daugavpils or draw.

FS Jelgava have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L). BFC Daugavpils have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 53% chance of over 2.5 and a 57% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Latvia Virsliga
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 13:00 WAT
Venue
Olympic Sports Center of Zemgale, Jelgava

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 13:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils in?

The match is in the Latvia Virsliga.

Where are FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils in the table?

FS Jelgava are 9th and BFC Daugavpils are 2nd in the Virsliga.

Who will win FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

Our prediction is BFC Daugavpils or draw. Win probabilities: FS Jelgava 30%, draw 27%, BFC Daugavpils 43%.

Will both teams score in FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

We estimate a 57% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

We estimate a 53% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Virsliga on Sun 25 Oct

FTOgre United 1-4 Auda2 ✓FTSuper Nova 0-3 Rīgas FSOver 2.5 ✓

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