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Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund prediction for the Bundesliga on 31 Oct 2026: Over 2.5 (75%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday31October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 8
Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
2 - 2Full time · Sat 31 OctHT 1-0
Allianz Arena, Munich

Match events

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
  1. 6'Yellow card: Jobe BellinghamFoul
  2. Substitution: Ismael SaibariOff: Nathaniel Brown29'
  3. Substitution: Serge GnabryOff: Josip Stanišić31'
  4. 34'VARVAR: Jobe BellinghamGoal cancelled
  5. Goal: Konrad Laimer38'

HT 1-0

  1. Yellow card: Josip StanišićFoul53'
  2. Missed penalty: Harry Kane56'
  3. 60'Goal: Serhou GuirassyAssist: Carney Chukwuemeka
  4. Goal: Dayot UpamecanoAssist: Harry Kane66'
  5. 67'Substitution: Carney ChukwuemekaOff: Marcel Sabitzer
  6. 67'Substitution: Maximilian BeierOff: Konstantinos Karetsas
  7. Yellow card: Konrad LaimerFoul74'
  8. 76'Substitution: Felix NmechaOff: Fábio Silva
  9. Substitution: Michael OliseOff: Lennart Karl84'
  10. 87'Substitution: Jobe BellinghamOff: Samuele Inácio
  11. 87'Substitution: Julian RyersonOff: Kouakou Joane Gadou
  12. 89'Goal: Fábio SilvaAssist: Konstantinos Karetsas

Our verdict

Over 2.5 ✓

Over 2.5

Bet365 1.25

75%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-2

Expected goals3.9

Win probability

1 · Bayern München69%
Fair odds 1.45
X · Draw17%
Fair odds 5.88
2 · Borussia Dortmund14%
Fair odds 7.14

Match statistics

  • 56%Possession44%
  • 3.95Expected goals (xG)0.65
  • 23Total shots12
  • 5Shots on target6
  • 11Shots off target2
  • 7Blocked shots4
  • 18Shots inside the box7
  • 5Corners2
  • 3Offsides3
  • 11Fouls6
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Goalkeeper saves3
  • 602Passes479
  • 516Accurate passes392

Line-ups

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 40J. UrbigG
  2. 27K. LaimerD
  3. 2D. UpamecanoD
  4. 3Kim Min-JaeD
  5. 19A. DaviesD
  6. 6J. KimmichM
  7. 45A. PavlovićM
  8. 17M. OliseM
  9. 34I. SaibariM
  10. 7S. GnabryM
  11. 9H. KaneF

Substitutes

  1. 26S. UlreichG
  2. 4J. TahD
  3. 44J. StanišićD
  4. 42L. KarlM
  5. 21H. ItoD
  6. 11N. BrownD
  7. 23S. BoeyD
  8. 8T. BischofM
  9. 46T. BinderF

Coach: V. Kompany

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 1G. KobelG
  2. 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
  3. 3W. AntonD
  4. 4N. SchlotterbeckD
  5. 14M. BeierM
  6. 25J. VeermanM
  7. 8F. NmechaM
  8. 24D. SvenssonM
  9. 7J. BellinghamM
  10. 17C. ChukwuemekaM
  11. 9S. GuirassyF

Substitutes

  1. 21Fábio SilvaF
  2. 20M. SabitzerM
  3. 26J. RyersonD
  4. 18E. NwaneriM
  5. 33A. MeyerG
  6. 39F. ManéD
  7. 19K. KaretsasM
  8. 40S. InacioF
  9. 5R. BensebaïniD

Coach: N. Kovač

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.71 – 1.20
0.5 goalsOver98.0%Under2.0%
1.5 goalsOver90.1%Under9.9%
2.5 goalsOver74.8%Under25.2%
3.5 goalsOver54.9%Under45.1%
4.5 goalsOver35.3%Under64.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
73%Form27%
85%Attack15%
30%Defence70%
50%Head to head50%
69%Expected goals31%
83%Overall17%

Last matches

Newest first
Bayern München3W 2D 0L · last 5
WBayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg28 Oct 2026 · DFB Pokal6-1WSC Freiburg vs Bayern München25 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga1-3DBayern München vs Arsenal21 Oct 2026 · Champions League2-2WBayern München vs RB Leipzig17 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga6-1DViking vs Bayern München13 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-3
Borussia Dortmund1W 1D 1L · last 3
WSabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund20 Oct 2026 · Champions League1-2DUnion Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund17 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga0-0LBodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund14 Oct 2026 · Champions League1-0

Bundesliga table

Bundesliga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
11VfB Stuttgart8-19
121899 Hoffenheim8-29
131. FC Köln8-39
14SC Paderborn 078-39
15Hamburger SV8-129
16Union Berlin8-127
17FC Schalke 048-56
18Borussia Mönchengladbach8-114
See full table ›

Top scorers

Bundesliga top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1N. FüllkrugWerder Bremen89
2P. SchickBayer Leverkusen87
3M. OliseBayern München86
4Y. EbnoutalibEintracht Frankfurt86
5E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatBayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
Played53
Wins31
Draws21
Losses01
Goals for (avg)40.7
Goals against (avg)1.60.7
Clean sheets01
Failed to score02
Best win streak21

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 5 games went over the line

Over 1.55/51/3
Over 2.55/51/3
Over 3.55/50/3
BTTS – yes5/51/3

Match preview

Bayern München host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 8) at Allianz Arena, Munich, with kick-off on Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 18:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Bayern München clear favourites, giving Bayern München a 69% chance of winning, 17% for the draw and 14% for Borussia Dortmund. Our tip is: Over 2.5.

Bayern München have taken 11 points from their last 5 games (3W 2D 0L). Borussia Dortmund have taken 4 points from their last 3 games (1W 1D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 and a 66% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Germany Bundesliga
Date
Saturday, 31 October 2026, 18:30 WAT
Venue
Allianz Arena, Munich

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?

Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund kicks off on Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 18:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund in?

The match is in the Germany Bundesliga.

Where are Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund in the table?

Bayern München are 1st and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd in the Bundesliga.

Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our prediction is Over 2.5. Win probabilities: Bayern München 69%, draw 17%, Borussia Dortmund 14%.

Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?

We estimate a 66% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?

We estimate a 75% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Bundesliga on Sat 31 Oct

FTWerder Bremen 2-0 1899 HoffenheimX2 ✗FTFC Schalke 04 0-2 RB LeipzigX2 ✓FTFC Augsburg 1-2 SC FreiburgX2 ✓FTBayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart1X ✗FTBorussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Paderborn 071X ✓

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