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SC Freiburg vs Bayern München prediction

SC Freiburg vs Bayern München prediction for the Bundesliga on 25 Oct 2026: Bayern München to win (67%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
SC FreiburgBayern München
1 - 3Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 0-2
Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg

Match events

SC FreiburgBayern München
  1. 16'Goal: Dayot UpamecanoAssist: Michael Olise
  2. Yellow card: Lucas HölerFoul25'
  3. 42'Goal: Serge GnabryAssist: Nathaniel Brown

HT 0-2

  1. Yellow card: Jan-Niklas BesteFoul55'
  2. Substitution: Lucas HölerOff: Igor Matanović57'
  3. Substitution: Patrick OsterhageOff: Rihito Yamamoto58'
  4. 61'Substitution: Serge GnabryOff: Ismael Saibari
  5. 61'Substitution: Josip StanišićOff: Sacha Boey
  6. Substitution: Jan-Niklas BesteOff: Cyriaque Irié64'
  7. 65'Yellow card: Jonathan TahFoul
  8. 73'Substitution: Nathaniel BrownOff: Alphonso Davies
  9. Substitution: Philipp LienhartOff: Maximilian Rosenfelder77'
  10. Substitution: Derry Lionel ScherhantOff: Vincenzo Grifo77'
  11. Own goal: Tom Bischof (og)82'
  12. Yellow card: Maximilian EggesteinFoul85'
  13. 86'Substitution: Lennart KarlOff: Hiroki Ito
  14. 90+5'Goal: Michael Olise

Our verdict

2 ✓

Bayern München to win

Bet365 1.36

67%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-3

Expected goals3.9

Win probability

1 · SC Freiburg16%
Fair odds 6.25
X · Draw17%
Fair odds 5.88
2 · Bayern München67%
Fair odds 1.49

Match statistics

  • 44%Possession56%
  • 1.07Expected goals (xG)3.00
  • 17Total shots17
  • 5Shots on target9
  • 5Shots off target7
  • 7Blocked shots1
  • 9Shots inside the box13
  • 5Corners6
  • 1Offsides1
  • 9Fouls11
  • 3Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Goalkeeper saves5
  • 406Passes524
  • 333Accurate passes441

Line-ups

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1M. BackhausG
  2. 29P. TreuD
  3. 28M. GinterD
  4. 3P. LienhartD
  5. 33J. MakengoD
  6. 8M. EggesteinM
  7. 6P. OsterhageM
  8. 19J. BesteM
  9. 14Y. SuzukiM
  10. 7D. ScherhantM
  11. 9L. HölerF

Substitutes

  1. 20R. YamamotoM
  2. 37M. RosenfelderD
  3. 21F. MüllerG
  4. 31I. MatanovićF
  5. 17L. KüblerD
  6. 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
  7. 30C. GünterD
  8. 32V. GrifoM
  9. 42K. GotoF

Coach: J. Schuster

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 40J. UrbigG
  2. 44J. StanišićD
  3. 2D. UpamecanoD
  4. 4J. TahD
  5. 11N. BrownD
  6. 27K. LaimerM
  7. 8T. BischofM
  8. 17M. OliseM
  9. 42L. KarlM
  10. 7S. GnabryM
  11. 9H. KaneF

Substitutes

  1. 34I. SaibariM
  2. 47David DaiberM
  3. 30Cassiano KialaD
  4. 21H. ItoD
  5. 19A. DaviesD
  6. 35Jannis BärtlG
  7. 46T. BinderM
  8. 26S. UlreichG
  9. 23S. BoeyD

Coach: V. Kompany

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.26 – 2.67
0.5 goalsOver98.0%Under2.0%
1.5 goalsOver90.3%Under9.7%
2.5 goalsOver75.1%Under24.9%
3.5 goalsOver55.3%Under44.7%
4.5 goalsOver35.7%Under64.3%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

SC FreiburgBayern München
38%Form62%
26%Attack74%
47%Defence53%
50%Head to head50%
32%Expected goals68%
19%Overall81%

Last matches

Newest first
SC Freiburg1W 0D 2L · last 3
LMonaco vs SC Freiburg22 Oct 2026 · Conference League3-0LBayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg18 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga2-1WSC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec15 Oct 2026 · Conference League3-2
Bayern München1W 2D 0L · last 3
DBayern München vs Arsenal21 Oct 2026 · Champions League2-2WBayern München vs RB Leipzig17 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga6-1DViking vs Bayern München13 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-3

Bundesliga table

Bundesliga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Bayern München7+1917
2Borussia Dortmund7+817
3SC Freiburg7+713
4Bayer Leverkusen7+413
5SV Elversberg8013
6RB Leipzig7+912
7Werder Bremen7+112
8FSV Mainz 058010
9FC Augsburg7+49
101899 Hoffenheim709
11Hamburger SV7-109
121. FC Köln7-38
13SC Paderborn 077-38
14Eintracht Frankfurt7-78
15VfB Stuttgart7-36
16FC Schalke 047-36
17Union Berlin7-126
18Borussia Mönchengladbach7-113
See full table ›

Top scorers

Bundesliga top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1N. FüllkrugWerder Bremen78
2M. OliseBayern München76
3P. SchickBayer Leverkusen76
4Y. EbnoutalibEintracht Frankfurt75
5P. TietzFSV Mainz 0575

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatSC FreiburgBayern München
Played33
Wins11
Draws02
Losses20
Goals for (avg)1.33.7
Goals against (avg)2.32
Clean sheets00
Failed to score10
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line

Over 1.53/33/3
Over 2.53/33/3
Over 3.51/33/3
BTTS – yes2/33/3

Match preview

SC Freiburg host Bayern München in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 7) at Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Bayern München clear favourites, giving SC Freiburg a 16% chance of winning, 17% for the draw and 67% for Bayern München. Our tip is: Bayern München to win.

SC Freiburg have taken 3 points from their last 3 games (1W 0D 2L). Bayern München have taken 5 points from their last 3 games (1W 2D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 and a 67% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Germany Bundesliga
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 17:30 WAT
Venue
Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?

SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München in?

The match is in the Germany Bundesliga.

Where are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in the table?

SC Freiburg are 3rd and Bayern München are 1st in the Bundesliga.

Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?

Our prediction is Bayern München to win. Win probabilities: SC Freiburg 16%, draw 17%, Bayern München 67%.

Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?

We estimate a 67% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?

We estimate a 75% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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