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Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction for the Ligue 1 on 25 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (81%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8
ToulouseEstac Troyes
0 - 0Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 0-0
Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

Match events

ToulouseEstac Troyes
  1. Yellow card: Rafik MessaliFoul25'
  2. Yellow card: Aron DønnumDissent25'
  3. 36'Yellow card: Junior DiazFoul
  4. Yellow card: Cristian CasseresFoul39'
  5. 40'Yellow card: Timothee NkadaFoul

HT 0-0

  1. Substitution: Rafik MessaliOff: Alexis Vossah58'
  2. Substitution: Aron DønnumOff: Ilyas Azizi67'
  3. 73'Substitution: Renaud RipartOff: Jérémy Le Douaron
  4. 73'Substitution: Timothee NkadaOff: Kandet Diawara
  5. Yellow card: Niko Sigur83'
  6. Substitution: Jacen Russell-RoweOff: Santiago Hidalgo84'
  7. Substitution: Thomas JorgensenOff: Niklas Schmidt84'
  8. Yellow card: Jens Berthel AskouDissent88'
  9. Yellow card: Alexis VossahFoul89'
  10. 90'Substitution: Mouhamed DiopOff: Iron Gomis
  11. Yellow card: Mark McKenzieFoul90+3'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✗

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

81%

✗ This tip lost · final score 0-0

Expected goals3.0

Win probability

1 · Toulouse59%
Fair odds 1.69
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · Estac Troyes19%
Fair odds 5.26

Match statistics

  • 63%Possession37%
  • 0.70Expected goals (xG)0.38
  • 7Total shots8
  • 3Shots on target0
  • 2Shots off target2
  • 2Blocked shots6
  • 6Shots inside the box2
  • 4Corners2
  • 1Offsides0
  • 19Fouls14
  • 6Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 0Goalkeeper saves3
  • 595Passes339
  • 532Accurate passes271

Line-ups

Toulouse

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 16G. RestesG
  2. 22R. MessaliD
  3. 3M. McKenzieD
  4. 2R. NicolaisenD
  5. 12C. TapéD
  6. 15A. DønnumM
  7. 23C. CásseresM
  8. 14N. SigurM
  9. 8T. JørgensenM
  10. 13J. Russell-RoweF
  11. 20C. TengstedtF

Substitutes

  1. 6A. VossahM
  2. 1T. CollinG
  3. 37Y. AziziF
  4. 18M. AmougouM
  5. 94I. DialloD
  6. 9S. HidalgoF
  7. 5S. KoumbassaD
  8. 31N. SchmidtM
  9. 7Julián VignoloF

Coach: Jens Berthel Askou

Estac Troyes

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 40H. KonatéG
  2. 2L. MaronnierD
  3. 6A. MonfrayD
  4. 4M. DiazD
  5. 5P. GozziD
  6. 17A. MilleM
  7. 29D. KarimM
  8. 8M. DiopM
  9. 10M. IfnaouiF
  10. 20R. RipartF
  11. 23T. NkadaF

Substitutes

  1. 33P. BeachG
  2. 7K. DiawaraF
  3. 11I. GomisM
  4. 22H. PicardM
  5. 26A. PhliponeauM
  6. 9J. Le DouaronF
  7. 36I. SoukounaM
  8. 31Noah DonkorD
  9. 34Lassana SimakhaD

Coach: S. Dumont

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.03
0.5 goalsOver95.0%Under5.0%
1.5 goalsOver80.1%Under19.9%
2.5 goalsOver57.7%Under42.3%
3.5 goalsOver35.3%Under64.7%
4.5 goalsOver18.5%Under81.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

ToulouseEstac Troyes
100%Form0%
75%Attack25%
94%Defence6%
50%Head to head50%
66%Expected goals34%
76%Overall24%

Last matches

Newest first
Toulouse1W 0D 0L · last 1
WLe Mans vs Toulouse16 Oct 2026 · Ligue 10-3
Estac Troyes0W 0D 1L · last 1
LEstac Troyes vs Lens17 Oct 2026 · Ligue 11-3

Ligue 1 table

Ligue 1 table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Rennes9+116
4Monaco8+415
5Lyon8+614
6Paris FC8+414
7Nice9+114
8Lens9+313
9Marseille8+512
10Lorient8+112
11Toulouse8+110
12Auxerre8-610
13Stade Brestois 298+29
14Angers8-68
15Estac Troyes9-98
16Strasbourg8-67
17Le Mans9-77
18Le Havre9-112
See full table ›

Top scorers

Ligue 1 top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1E. LepaulRennes77
2E. WahiNice86
3L. SinayokoParis FC86
4C. ArcherAuxerre65
5A. GouiriMarseille85

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatToulouseEstac Troyes
Played11
Wins10
Draws00
Losses01
Goals for (avg)31
Goals against (avg)03
Clean sheets10
Failed to score00
Best win streak10

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.51/11/1
Over 2.51/11/1
Over 3.50/11/1
BTTS – yes0/11/1

Match preview

Toulouse host Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 8) at Stadium Municipal, Toulouse, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:15 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Toulouse favourites, giving Toulouse a 59% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 19% for Estac Troyes. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Toulouse have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L). Estac Troyes have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 and a 56% chance that both teams score.

Competition
France Ligue 1
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 17:15 WAT
Venue
Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:15 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes in?

The match is in the France Ligue 1.

Where are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in the table?

Toulouse are 11th and Estac Troyes are 15th in the Ligue 1.

Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Toulouse 59%, draw 22%, Estac Troyes 19%.

Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?

We estimate a 56% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?

We estimate a 58% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Ligue 1 on Sun 25 Oct

FTMonaco 1-1 LilleOver 1.5 ✓FTAngers 0-0 LorientX2 ✓FTRennes 3-0 Strasbourg1X ✓FTMarseille 4-3 Le Havre1 ✓FTAuxerre 1-1 Le MansOver 1.5 ✓

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