Serie A · Regular Season - 10
Match events
Genoa- 11'Goal: Milutin OsmajićAssist: Junior Messias
- 28'Goal: Junior MessiasAssist: Stephan El Shaarawy
- Goal: Youssef Maleh40'
- VAR: Nikola StulicGoal cancelledVAR45+4'
HT 1-2
- Substitution: Mohamed KabaOff: Olaf Gorter56'
- Yellow card: Mohamed KabaFoul59'
- Substitution: Joel Almada MonteiroOff: Amar Fatah59'
- 60'Substitution: Samuel WiafeOff: Kingsley Ehizibue
- 60'Substitution: Stephan El ShaarawyOff: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira
- 62'Yellow card: Hamed Junior TraorèFoul
- Yellow card: Jamil SiebertFoul70'
- Substitution: Youssef MalehOff: Omri Gandelman75'
- Substitution: Nikola StulicOff: Ali Dembélé75'
- Substitution: Konan N'DriOff: Paco Esteban75'
- 80'Substitution: Hamed Junior TraorèOff: Djibril Sow
- 86'Substitution: Milutin OsmajićOff: Lorenzo Colombo
- 86'Substitution: Franz-Ethan MeichtryOff: Junior Messias
- Yellow card: E. Di FrancescoDissent87'
Our verdict
Genoa or draw
Bet365 1.40
✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-2
Win probability
Match statistics
- 53%Possession47%
- 0.96Expected goals (xG)1.28
- 18Total shots13
- 7Shots on target3
- 6Shots off target5
- 5Blocked shots5
- 8Shots inside the box6
- 6Corners3
- 1Offsides3
- 19Fouls9
- 2Yellow cards1
- 0Red cards0
- 1Goalkeeper saves6
- 394Passes367
- 304Accurate passes273
Line-ups
Lecce
4-3-3Starting XI
- 30W. FalconeG
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 5J. SiebertD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 25A. GalloD
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 79O. NgomM
- 14Y. MalehM
- 11K. N’DriF
- 9N. ŠtulićF
- 99Joël MonteiroF
Substitutes
- 2A. DembéléD
- 7A. Ahmed FatahF
- 3C. NdabaD
- 1M. BleveG
- 32A. BorbeiG
- 22Paco EstebanF
- 8S. FofanaM
- 16O. GandelmanM
- 18G. JeanD
- 77M. KabaM
- 31E. ScottD
Coach: E. Di Francesco
Genoa
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. BijlowG
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 22J. VásquezD
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 25H. TraorèM
- 92S. El ShaarawyM
- 71S. WiafeM
- 10Junior MessiasM
- 18M. OsmajićF
Substitutes
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 9VítinhaF
- 29L. ColomboF
- 16C. DramehD
- 3K. EhizibueD
- 14Lukas KlišysD
- 34S. OtoaD
- 11E. MeichtryM
- 2M. MitajD
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 20S. SabelliD
- 99F. StolzG
- 97D. SowM
- 39D. SommarivaG
Coach: D. De Rossi
Betting markets
Expected goals 1.11 – 1.21Half time / full time result. 1 = Lecce, X = draw, 2 = Genoa.
Asian handicap applied to Lecce.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstSerie A table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +16 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | LWWWW |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +18 | 24 | WWDWD |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 23 | WWWWD |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 21 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Frosinone | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 20 | WWDWL |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 | WLWLD |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 14 | LWDLW |
| 9 | Bologna | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 14 | WWWLW |
| 10 | Torino | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 | LLWWW |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 | WWWLW |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 13 | LLLLD |
| 13 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 | DDLWL |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 9 | LLLWL |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 | LLLDL |
| 16 | Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | DLLLD |
| 18 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Udinese | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 3 | LLLWL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gustavo VarelaMonza | 9 | 9 |
| 2 |  D. MalenAS Roma | 9 | 8 |
| 3 |  A. RaimondoFrosinone | 9 | 8 |
| 4 |  N. KrstovićAtalanta | 9 | 6 |
| 5 |  A. RabiotAC Milan | 8 | 5 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Lecce | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
| Goals for (avg) | 1.3 | 1 |
| Goals against (avg) | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
| Best win streak | 1 | 2 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 3/3 | 2/3 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2/3 | 0/3 |
| Over 3.5 | 1/3 | 0/3 |
| BTTS – yes | 1/3 | 0/3 |
Match preview
Lecce host Genoa in the Serie A (Regular Season - 10) at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce, with kick-off on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 18:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Genoa narrow favourites, giving Lecce a 33% chance of winning, 29% for the draw and 38% for Genoa. Our tip is: Genoa or draw.
Lecce have taken 3 points from their last 3 games (1W 0D 2L). Genoa have taken 6 points from their last 3 games (2W 0D 1L).
On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Italy Serie A
- Date
- Sunday, 1 November 2026, 18:00 WAT
- Venue
- Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce vs Genoa kicks off on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 18:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Lecce vs Genoa in?
The match is in the Italy Serie A.
Where are Lecce and Genoa in the table?
Lecce are 14th and Genoa are 11th in the Serie A.
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
Our prediction is Genoa or draw. Win probabilities: Lecce 33%, draw 29%, Genoa 38%.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Genoa?
We estimate a 48% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is No.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lecce vs Genoa?
We estimate a 41% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.