Championship · Regular Season - 15
Our verdict
Over 1.5
Bet365 1.22
Win probability
Betting markets
Expected goals 1.53 – 1.33Half time / full time result. 1 = Derby, X = draw, 2 = Bolton.
Asian handicap applied to Derby.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest first
Derby0W 0D 3L · last 3
Bolton1W 1D 2L · last 4Championship table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Birmingham | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Swansea | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 | LWLLW |
| 5 | West Brom | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 | DWDWW |
| 6 | Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 | DWWDW |
| 7 | Wolves | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 | WWDWL |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 | LLWWD |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 | WWDWL |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 | WDWDW |
| 11 | QPR | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 | DLWLW |
| 12 | Norwich | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 | WWWLL |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 | LWLDL |
| 14 | Blackburn | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 | LLWLW |
| 15 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 | WDLLD |
| 16 | Bolton | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 | WLLDW |
| 17 | Lincoln | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | LWDWL |
| 19 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 | LLWLD |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 | WLLWL |
| 21 | Charlton | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 | LLLLD |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 | DDLLD |
| 23 | Derby | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 | LLDLL |
| 24 | Preston | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 | LLDLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  W. LankshearMiddlesbrough | 13 | 13 |
| 2 |  A. GuðjohnsenBlackburn | 12 | 8 |
| 3 |  C. LarinSouthampton | 11 | 7 |
| 4 |  J. BowenWest Ham | 13 | 7 |
| 5 |  Fer LópezWolves | 12 | 6 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Derby | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 4 |
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals for (avg) | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals against (avg) | 3 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 |
| Best win streak | 0 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 4 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 2/3 | 3/4 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 2/3 | 3/4 |
| Over 3.5 | 2/3 | 3/4 |
| BTTS – yes | 2/3 | 3/4 |
Match preview
Derby host Bolton in the Championship (Regular Season - 15) at Pride Park Stadium, Derby, with kick-off on Friday, 6 November 2026 at 21:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Derby slight favourites, giving Derby a 41% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 33% for Bolton. Our tip is: Over 1.5.
Derby have taken 0 points from their last 3 games (0W 0D 3L). Bolton have taken 4 points from their last 4 games (1W 1D 2L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 and a 58% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- England Championship
- Date
- Friday, 6 November 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Venue
- Pride Park Stadium, Derby
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Derby vs Bolton?
Derby vs Bolton kicks off on Friday, 6 November 2026 at 21:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Derby vs Bolton in?
The match is in the England Championship.
Where are Derby and Bolton in the table?
Derby are 23rd and Bolton are 16th in the Championship.
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Derby 41%, draw 26%, Bolton 33%.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?
We estimate a 58% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Derby vs Bolton?
We estimate a 55% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.