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Bolton vs Middlesbrough prediction

Bolton vs Middlesbrough prediction for the Championship on 23 Oct 2026: Middlesbrough to win (59%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday23October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
Championship · Regular Season - 12
BoltonMiddlesbrough
1 - 5Full time · Fri 23 OctHT 1-3
Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich

Match events

BoltonMiddlesbrough
  1. 13'Goal: Aidan MorrisAssist: Amario Cozier-Duberry
  2. 31'Goal: will lankshearAssist: Tommy Conway
  3. 39'Own goal: Lewis Brunt (og)
  4. Substitution: Akin FamewoOff: Max Conway45'
  5. Substitution: Atsuki ItoOff: Ruben Rodrigues45'
  6. Goal: Thelonius BairAssist: Gaizka Larrazabal45+2'

HT 1-3

  1. Substitution: Thelonius BairOff: Sam Dalby55'
  2. Substitution: Ethan ErhahonOff: Ryan Hardie55'
  3. Yellow card: Josh SheehanPersistent Infringement63'
  4. 69'Substitution: Tommy ConwayOff: Max Arfsten
  5. 73'Goal: Amario Cozier-DuberryAssist: Riley McGree
  6. Substitution: Kyliane DongOff: Xavier Simons74'
  7. 78'Goal: will lankshearAssist: Riley McGree
  8. 79'Substitution: Riley McGreeOff: Leo Castledine
  9. 79'Substitution: Amario Cozier-DuberryOff: Jeremy Sarmiento
  10. 79'Substitution: will lankshearOff: Kyle Joseph
  11. 86'Substitution: Sebastian BerhalterOff: Myles Peart-Harris

Our verdict

2 ✓

Middlesbrough to win

Bet365 1.53

59%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-5

Expected goals3.2

Win probability

1 · Bolton20%
Fair odds 5.00
X · Draw21%
Fair odds 4.76
2 · Middlesbrough59%
Fair odds 1.69

Match statistics

  • 40%Possession60%
  • 0.91Expected goals (xG)4.16
  • 12Total shots31
  • 4Shots on target12
  • 5Shots off target8
  • 3Blocked shots11
  • 7Shots inside the box20
  • 2Corners12
  • 0Offsides4
  • 9Fouls9
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0
  • 8Goalkeeper saves3
  • 366Passes554
  • 308Accurate passes491

Line-ups

Bolton

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 31G. BazunuG
  2. 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
  3. 18E. ToalD
  4. 5L. BruntD
  5. 14A. FamewoD
  6. 8J. SheehanM
  7. 21E. ErhahonM
  8. 7K. DongM
  9. 20Ruben RodriguesM
  10. 11T. GaleM
  11. 9T. BairF

Substitutes

  1. 1J. BonhamG
  2. 25M. ConwayD
  3. 10S. DalbyF
  4. 6B. DaviesD
  5. 39R. HardieF
  6. 16S. Iling-JuniorF
  7. 17A. ItoM
  8. 4X. SimonsM
  9. 27Luca StephensonM

Coach: S. Schumacher

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1R. VítekG
  2. 2C. BrittainD
  3. 4A. PhillipsD
  4. 29A. MalandaD
  5. 30Neto BorgesD
  6. 10A. MorrisM
  7. 6S. BerhalterM
  8. 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
  9. 8R. McGreeM
  10. 9T. ConwayM
  11. 7W. LankshearF

Substitutes

  1. 16J. SarmientoF
  2. 14M. Peart-HarrisM
  3. 22K. JosephF
  4. 19Leo CastledineM
  5. 3S. ByramD
  6. 31S. BrynnG
  7. 18C. BarronM
  8. 12L. AylingD
  9. 17M. ArfstenD

Coach: K. Hellberg

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.14 – 2.08
0.5 goalsOver96.0%Under4.0%
1.5 goalsOver83.1%Under16.9%
2.5 goalsOver62.4%Under37.6%
3.5 goalsOver40.2%Under59.8%
4.5 goalsOver22.3%Under77.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

BoltonMiddlesbrough
50%Form50%
38%Attack62%
80%Defence20%
50%Head to head50%
35%Expected goals65%
25%Overall75%

Last matches

Newest first
Bolton1W 1D 0L · last 2
DSouthampton vs Bolton17 Oct 2026 · Championship0-0WWolves vs Bolton13 Oct 2026 · Championship1-3
Middlesbrough1W 1D 0L · last 2
DMiddlesbrough vs Cardiff17 Oct 2026 · Championship2-2WStoke City vs Middlesbrough13 Oct 2026 · Championship2-3

Championship table

Championship table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
11Portsmouth13+119
12Millwall13+218
13Blackburn13-118
14Bristol City13-218
15Norwich13-115
16Lincoln13-915
17Cardiff13-114
18Wrexham13-414
19Bolton13-814
20Charlton13-1014
21Watford13-1111
22Burnley13-89
23Derby13-147
24Preston13-175
See full table ›

Top scorers

Championship top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1W. LankshearMiddlesbrough1211
2A. GuðjohnsenBlackburn118
3C. LarinSouthampton117
4J. BowenWest Ham126
5J. MoylanCardiff126

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatBoltonMiddlesbrough
Played22
Wins11
Draws11
Losses00
Goals for (avg)1.52.5
Goals against (avg)0.52
Clean sheets10
Failed to score10
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.51/22/2
Over 2.51/22/2
Over 3.51/22/2
BTTS – yes1/22/2

Match preview

Bolton host Middlesbrough in the Championship (Regular Season - 12) at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich, with kick-off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Middlesbrough favourites, giving Bolton a 20% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 59% for Middlesbrough. Our tip is: Middlesbrough to win.

Bolton have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L). Middlesbrough have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 62% chance of over 2.5 and a 60% chance that both teams score.

Competition
England Championship
Date
Friday, 23 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Bolton vs Middlesbrough?

Bolton vs Middlesbrough kicks off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Bolton vs Middlesbrough in?

The match is in the England Championship.

Where are Bolton and Middlesbrough in the table?

Bolton are 19th and Middlesbrough are 1st in the Championship.

Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?

Our prediction is Middlesbrough to win. Win probabilities: Bolton 20%, draw 21%, Middlesbrough 59%.

Will both teams score in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?

We estimate a 60% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bolton vs Middlesbrough?

We estimate a 62% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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