La Liga · Regular Season - 10
Match events
Real Madrid- Substitution: Xavi EspartOff: Alejandro Balde30'
- 41'Goal: Kylian Mbappé
HT 0-1
- 46'Yellow card: Aurelien TchouameniFoul
- Goal: Raphael Dias BelloliAssist: Pedri61'
- 62'Substitution: Federico ValverdeOff: Denzel Dumfries
- Substitution: Fermín LópezOff: Frenkie de Jong74'
- 80'Substitution: Eduardo CamavingaOff: Bernardo Silva
- Yellow card: Anthony GordonFoul84'
- Substitution: Anthony GordonOff: Karim Adeyemi85'
- Substitution: Raphael Dias BelloliOff: Gabriel Jesus86'
- 87'Goal: Kylian MbappéAssist: Eduardo Camavinga
- 90+2'Yellow card: Marc CucurellaDissent
- 90+4'Yellow card: Kylian MbappéDissent
- 90+4'Substitution: Arda GülerOff: Trent Alexander-Arnold
- 90+4'Substitution: Yan DiomandeOff: Carlos Espí
- Yellow card: Karim AdeyemiArgument90+6'
- Yellow card: Alejandro BaldeFoul90+6'
Our verdict
Barcelona to win
Bet365 1.62
✗ This tip lost · final score 1-2
Win probability
Match statistics
- 62%Possession38%
- 1.30Expected goals (xG)2.01
- 18Total shots10
- 6Shots on target5
- 6Shots off target3
- 6Blocked shots2
- 11Shots inside the box6
- 6Corners6
- 3Offsides3
- 15Fouls11
- 3Yellow cards3
- 0Red cards0
- 3Goalkeeper saves5
- 640Passes381
- 569Accurate passes322
Line-ups
Barcelona
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Joan GarcíaG
- 12X. EspartD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 18Gerard MartínD
- 2João CanceloD
- 7FermínM
- 16RodriM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalF
- 11RaphinhaF
- 17A. GordonF
Substitutes
- 14K. AdeyemiF
- 13W. SzczęsnyG
- 25D. LivakovićG
- 32O. GorenM
- 6GaviM
- 9Gabriel JesusF
- 4B. FarinasM
- 29H. AbdelkarimF
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 41A. CamposD
- 21F. de JongM
Coach: H. Flick
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 13A. LuninG
- 8F. ValverdeD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 15A. GülerM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
- 39I. VoloshynG
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 27Thiago PitarchM
- 26Sergio MestreG
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 9EndrickF
- 3Éder MilitãoD
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
Coach: José Mourinho
Betting markets
Expected goals 2.63 – 1.60Half time / full time result. 1 = Barcelona, X = draw, 2 = Real Madrid.
Asian handicap applied to Barcelona.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstBarcelona2W 0D 1L · last 3Real Madrid3W 0D 0L · last 3La Liga table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +34 | 30 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +14 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +18 | 27 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 23 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 | WWLDD |
| 8 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | LWDLW |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | LDWDW |
| 10 | Alaves | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 | WLDDW |
| 12 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 12 | WLDLW |
| 13 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 11 | WLLDL |
| 15 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 | LWDDW |
| 18 | Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 | LLWDD |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 | WLDDL |
| 20 | Malaga | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 5 | LDLDL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  RaphinhaBarcelona | 10 | 15 |
| 2 |  Kylian MbappéReal Madrid | 11 | 12 |
| 3 |  Lamine YamalBarcelona | 11 | 10 |
| 4 |  M. ZabiriRacing Santander | 11 | 8 |
| 5 |  Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano | 11 | 7 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Barcelona | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
| Goals for (avg) | 3.7 | 4 |
| Goals against (avg) | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
| Best win streak | 2 | 3 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 3/3 | 3/3 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 3/3 | 3/3 |
| Over 3.5 | 3/3 | 3/3 |
| BTTS – yes | 3/3 | 3/3 |
Match preview
Barcelona host Real Madrid in the La Liga (Regular Season - 10) at Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 21:00 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Barcelona favourites, giving Barcelona a 59% chance of winning, 19% for the draw and 22% for Real Madrid. Our tip is: Barcelona to win.
Barcelona have taken 6 points from their last 3 games (2W 0D 1L). Real Madrid have taken 9 points from their last 3 games (3W 0D 0L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 79% chance of over 2.5 and a 74% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- Spain La Liga
- Date
- Sunday, 25 October 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Venue
- Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Barcelona vs Real Madrid kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 21:00 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Barcelona vs Real Madrid in?
The match is in the Spain La Liga.
Where are Barcelona and Real Madrid in the table?
Barcelona are 1st and Real Madrid are 3rd in the La Liga.
Who will win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Our prediction is Barcelona to win. Win probabilities: Barcelona 59%, draw 19%, Real Madrid 22%.
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
We estimate a 74% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
We estimate a 79% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.