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Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction

Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction for the Premier League on 24 Oct 2026: Manchester City to win (57%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday24October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Premier League · Regular Season - 8
Aston VillaManchester City
2 - 1Full time · Sat 24 OctHT 1-0
Villa Park, Birmingham

Match events

Aston VillaManchester City
  1. Goal: Nicolas JacksonAssist: John McGinn6'
  2. 32'Yellow card: Marc GuehiFoul
  3. 38'Yellow card: Rayan CherkiFoul
  4. 45'Substitution: Marc GuehiOff: Rico Lewis
  5. 45'Substitution: Rayan CherkiOff: Phil Foden

HT 1-0

  1. 52'Goal: Erling HaalandAssist: Iliman Ndiaye
  2. Yellow card: Johan ManzambiTime Wasting54'
  3. Yellow card: Matty CashFoul55'
  4. Substitution: Alysson Edward Franco da RochaOff: Ibrahim Mbaye59'
  5. Goal: Nicolas JacksonAssist: Ibrahim Mbaye60'
  6. Substitution: Johan ManzambiOff: Emiliano Buendía66'
  7. Substitution: John McGinnOff: Ross Barkley66'
  8. 69'Substitution: Iliman NdiayeOff: Ryan McAidoo
  9. 74'Yellow card: Elliot AndersonFoul
  10. 76'Yellow card: Ryan McAidooFoul
  11. Substitution: Nicolas JacksonOff: Brian Madjo82'
  12. Substitution: Leon GoretzkaOff: João Gomes82'
  13. Yellow card: Brian MadjoDissent83'
  14. Yellow card: Emiliano BuendíaFoul90+5'

Our verdict

2 ✗

Manchester City to win

Bet365 1.65

57%

✗ This tip lost · final score 2-1

Expected goals3.1

Win probability

1 · Aston Villa20%
Fair odds 5.00
X · Draw23%
Fair odds 4.35
2 · Manchester City57%
Fair odds 1.75

Match statistics

  • 37%Possession63%
  • 0.60Expected goals (xG)1.53
  • 8Total shots15
  • 2Shots on target7
  • 3Shots off target4
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 6Shots inside the box12
  • 4Corners7
  • 1Offsides2
  • 21Fouls17
  • 4Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Goalkeeper saves0
  • 314Passes527
  • 254Accurate passes471

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Z. SuzukiG
  2. 2M. CashD
  3. 3V. LindelöfD
  4. 14Pau TorresD
  5. 22I. MaatsenD
  6. 8B. KamaraM
  7. 35João GomesM
  8. 47Alysson EdwardM
  9. 7J. McGinnM
  10. 44J. ManzambiM
  11. 11N. JacksonF

Substitutes

  1. 39Brian MadjoF
  2. 19I. MbayeF
  3. 53George HemmingsM
  4. 27L. GoretzkaM
  5. 26L. BogardeM
  6. 10E. BuendíaM
  7. 6R. BarkleyM
  8. 5T. MingsD
  9. 40M. BizotG

Coach: Unai Emery

Manchester City

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1G. DonnarummaG
  2. 45A. KhusanovD
  3. 6M. GuéhiD
  4. 3Rúben DiasD
  5. 24J. GvardiolD
  6. 5E. AndersonM
  7. 17E. FernándezM
  8. 7I. NdiayeM
  9. 10R. CherkiM
  10. 11J. DokuM
  11. 9E. HaalandF

Substitutes

  1. 47P. FodenM
  2. 56R. McAidooF
  3. 28G. RulliG
  4. 21R. Aït-NouriD
  5. 22Vitor NunesD
  6. 33N. O'ReillyD
  7. 82R. LewisD
  8. 8M. KovačićM
  9. 32A. BouaddiM

Coach: E. Maresca

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.12 – 2.01
0.5 goalsOver95.6%Under4.4%
1.5 goalsOver81.9%Under18.1%
2.5 goalsOver60.5%Under39.5%
3.5 goalsOver38.2%Under61.8%
4.5 goalsOver20.7%Under79.3%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Aston VillaManchester City
60%Form40%
50%Attack50%
88%Defence12%
50%Head to head50%
36%Expected goals64%
26%Overall74%

Last matches

Newest first
Aston Villa3W 0D 0L · last 3
WAston Villa vs Viking21 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-1WNewcastle vs Aston Villa17 Oct 2026 · Premier League0-1WAston Villa vs Fenerbahçe14 Oct 2026 · Champions League6-0
Manchester City2W 0D 1L · last 3
WManchester City vs AEK Athens FC20 Oct 2026 · Champions League5-1WManchester City vs Ipswich17 Oct 2026 · Premier League3-2LManchester City vs Paris Saint Germain14 Oct 2026 · Champions League2-4

Premier League table

Premier League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Manchester City8+1121
2Arsenal8+821
3Brighton8+1616
4Liverpool8+315
5Chelsea8+213
6Brentford8+511
7Leeds8+311
8Newcastle8-211
9Aston Villa8-311
10Hull City8+110
11Everton8-110
12Ipswich8-410
13Bournemouth8-19
14Tottenham8-29
15Fulham8-28
16Manchester United8-37
17Crystal Palace8-107
18Nottingham Forest8-46
19Coventry8-96
20Sunderland8-85
See full table ›

Top scorers

Premier League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1E. HaalandManchester City89
2A. IsakLiverpool76
3João PedroChelsea65
4M. TavernierBournemouth85
5R. CherkiManchester City74

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAston VillaManchester City
Played33
Wins32
Draws00
Losses01
Goals for (avg)3.33.3
Goals against (avg)0.32.3
Clean sheets20
Failed to score00
Best win streak32

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line

Over 1.52/33/3
Over 2.52/33/3
Over 3.52/33/3
BTTS – yes1/33/3

Match preview

Aston Villa host Manchester City in the Premier League (Regular Season - 8) at Villa Park, Birmingham, with kick-off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 12:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Manchester City favourites, giving Aston Villa a 20% chance of winning, 23% for the draw and 57% for Manchester City. Our tip is: Manchester City to win.

Aston Villa have taken 9 points from their last 3 games (3W 0D 0L). Manchester City have taken 6 points from their last 3 games (2W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 and a 59% chance that both teams score.

Competition
England Premier League
Date
Saturday, 24 October 2026, 12:30 WAT
Venue
Villa Park, Birmingham

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Aston Villa vs Manchester City kicks off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 12:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Aston Villa vs Manchester City in?

The match is in the England Premier League.

Where are Aston Villa and Manchester City in the table?

Aston Villa are 9th and Manchester City are 1st in the Premier League.

Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Our prediction is Manchester City to win. Win probabilities: Aston Villa 20%, draw 23%, Manchester City 57%.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

We estimate a 59% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

We estimate a 61% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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