Premier League · Regular Season - 7
Match events
Aston Villa- Yellow card: JoelintonFoul18'
- Yellow card: Sven BotmanFoul18'
- 25'Yellow card: João GomesFoul
- 28'Yellow card: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
- 36'Goal: Johan ManzambiAssist: João Gomes
- 45'Substitution: Alysson Edward Franco da RochaOff: John McGinn
HT 0-1
- Yellow card: Nico GonzálezFoul53'
- Yellow card: Yoane WissaFoul55'
- Substitution: Matias Fernandez-PardoOff: Bazoumana Touré56'
- Substitution: Joe WillockOff: William Osula56'
- 72'Substitution: Emiliano BuendíaOff: Leon Goretzka
- 72'Substitution: João GomesOff: Ross Barkley
- 72'Substitution: Johan ManzambiOff: Ibrahim Mbaye
- 77'Substitution: Aaron Wan-BissakaOff: Pau Torres
- Yellow card: William OsulaFoul78'
- Yellow card: Malick ThiawFoul86'
- Substitution: JoelintonOff: Dan Burn90'
Our verdict
Newcastle or draw
Bet365 1.36
✗ This tip lost · final score 0-1
Win probability
Match statistics
- 49%Possession51%
- 1.11Expected goals (xG)1.56
- 16Total shots15
- 1Shots on target3
- 6Shots off target4
- 9Blocked shots8
- 11Shots inside the box11
- 4Corners5
- 5Offsides0
- 14Fouls11
- 6Yellow cards2
- 0Red cards0
- 2Goalkeeper saves1
- 397Passes429
- 331Accurate passes345
Line-ups
Newcastle
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 67L. MileyD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 3L. HallD
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 7JoelintonM
- 20M. Fernandez-PardoM
- 28J. WillockM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 9Y. WissaF
Substitutes
- 14Sean SteurM
- 17B. TouréF
- 10W. OsulaF
- 23J. MurphyM
- 1N. PopeG
- 5F. SchärD
- 33D. BurnD
- 37A. DedićD
- 8A. BambaM
Coach: M. Jaissle
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5T. MingsD
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 35João GomesM
- 47Alysson EdwardM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 11N. JacksonF
Substitutes
- 4T. Harwood-BellisD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 7J. McGinnM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 26L. BogardeM
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 19I. MbayeF
- 40M. BizotG
- 39Brian MadjoF
Coach: Unai Emery
Betting markets
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.39Half time / full time result. 1 = Newcastle, X = draw, 2 = Aston Villa.
Asian handicap applied to Newcastle.
Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.
Model comparison
Last matches
Newest firstNewcastle0W 0D 0L · last 0No finished matches yet.
Aston Villa1W 0D 0L · last 1Premier League table
| # | Team | P | +/- | Pts | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 24 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 | WLWWL |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 6 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 | WDLDW |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 | WWWLL |
| 8 | Tottenham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 | DWWDW |
| 10 | Hull City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 | DDLDL |
| 11 | Leeds | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 | LDDLD |
| 12 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 | DDLWL |
| 14 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 | DWWLD |
| 16 | Coventry | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 | LLDDD |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 | LLLWD |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | LDLLL |
Top scorers
| # | Player | M | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  E. HaalandManchester City | 9 | 9 |
| 2 |  A. IsakLiverpool | 7 | 6 |
| 3 |  João PedroChelsea | 6 | 5 |
| 4 |  M. RogersChelsea | 9 | 5 |
| 5 |  M. TavernierBournemouth | 9 | 5 |
Season statistics
This season, all competitions we cover| Stat | Newcastle | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 0 | 1 |
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Goals for (avg) | 0 | 6 |
| Goals against (avg) | 0 | 0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 |
| Best win streak | 0 | 1 |
Recent goal lines
How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line
| Over 1.5 | 0/0 | 1/1 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 0/0 | 1/1 |
| Over 3.5 | 0/0 | 1/1 |
| BTTS – yes | 0/0 | 0/1 |
Match preview
Newcastle host Aston Villa in the Premier League (Regular Season - 7) at St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, with kick-off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 17:30 WAT.
Our prediction model makes Newcastle slight favourites, giving Newcastle a 43% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 32% for Aston Villa. Our tip is: Newcastle or draw.
Aston Villa have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).
On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 and a 61% chance that both teams score.
- Competition
- England Premier League
- Date
- Saturday, 17 October 2026, 17:30 WAT
- Venue
- St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
TodaysPrediction analysis team
Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work
Quick answers
When is Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle vs Aston Villa kicks off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time.
Which competition is Newcastle vs Aston Villa in?
The match is in the England Premier League.
Where are Newcastle and Aston Villa in the table?
Newcastle are 12th and Aston Villa are 9th in the Premier League.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our prediction is Newcastle or draw. Win probabilities: Newcastle 43%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 32%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
We estimate a 61% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
We estimate a 58% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.
How often are predictions updated?
Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.