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Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction

Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction for the Ligue 1 on 17 Oct 2026: Lens or draw (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday17October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7
Estac TroyesNo recent gamesLens
1 - 3Full time · Sat 17 OctHT 1-2
Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

Match events

Estac TroyesLens
  1. 13'Own goal: Adrien Monfray (og)
  2. Goal: Timothee Nkada26'
  3. 45+2'Goal: Odsonne ÉdouardAssist: Florian Thauvin

HT 1-2

  1. 55'Goal: Ruben AguilarAssist: Florian Thauvin
  2. 60'Substitution: Jean-Clair TodiboOff: Samson Baidoo
  3. Substitution: Timothee NkadaOff: Kandet Diawara60'
  4. Substitution: Paolo Gozzi IweruOff: Noah Donkor64'
  5. 67'Substitution: Florian ThauvinOff: Mezian Soares Mesloub
  6. 67'Substitution: Odsonne ÉdouardOff: Franjo Ivanovic
  7. 67'Substitution: Yassine TitraouiOff: Amadou Haidara
  8. 72'Substitution: Ruben AguilarOff: Saud Abdulhamid
  9. Yellow card: Junior DiazFoul76'
  10. Yellow card: Renaud RipartDissent76'
  11. 77'Yellow card: Samson BaidooFoul
  12. Substitution: Mouhamed DiopOff: Jérémy Le Douaron79'
  13. Substitution: Lucas MaronnierOff: Iron Gomis79'
  14. 82'Yellow card: Amadou HaidaraFoul

Our verdict

X2 ✓

Lens or draw

Bet365 1.25

76%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-3

Expected goals3.1

Win probability

1 · Estac Troyes24%
Fair odds 4.17
X · Draw24%
Fair odds 4.17
2 · Lens52%
Fair odds 1.92

Match statistics

  • 41%Possession59%
  • 0.92Expected goals (xG)1.55
  • 12Total shots13
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 4Shots off target6
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 7Shots inside the box9
  • 6Corners4
  • 0Offsides1
  • 13Fouls11
  • 2Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Goalkeeper saves4
  • 365Passes540
  • 300Accurate passes450

Line-ups

Estac Troyes

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 33P. BeachG
  2. 2L. MaronnierD
  3. 6A. MonfrayD
  4. 4M. DiazD
  5. 5P. GozziD
  6. 8M. DiopM
  7. 29D. KarimM
  8. 10M. IfnaouiM
  9. 17A. MilleM
  10. 23T. NkadaM
  11. 20R. RipartF

Substitutes

  1. 40H. KonatéG
  2. 11I. GomisM
  3. 31Noah DonkorD
  4. 26A. PhliponeauM
  5. 9J. Le DouaronF
  6. 22H. PicardM
  7. 34Lassana SimakhaD
  8. 7K. DiawaraF
  9. 37C. BatolaF

Coach: S. Dumont

Lens

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 40R. RisserG
  2. 32K. AntonioD
  3. 25I. GaniouD
  4. 20J. TodiboD
  5. 2R. AguilarM
  6. 8Y. TitraouiM
  7. 5A. BulatovićM
  8. 22M. SkóraśM
  9. 10F. ThauvinM
  10. 7F. SotocaM
  11. 11O. ÉdouardF

Substitutes

  1. 38M. SoaresM
  2. 23Saud AbdulhamidD
  3. 6S. BaidooD
  4. 27M. CuisanceM
  5. 16M. GorgelinG
  6. 21A. HaidaraM
  7. 9T. HazardM
  8. 29F. IvanovićF
  9. 28J. KadileF

Coach: Yannick Cahuzac

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.89
0.5 goalsOver95.6%Under4.4%
1.5 goalsOver81.8%Under18.2%
2.5 goalsOver60.3%Under39.7%
3.5 goalsOver38.0%Under62.0%
4.5 goalsOver20.5%Under79.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Estac TroyesLens
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
91%Defence9%
50%Head to head50%
39%Expected goals61%
32%Overall68%

Last matches

Newest first
Estac Troyes0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Lens0W 0D 1L · last 1
LLens vs Sporting CP13 Oct 2026 · Champions League0-2

Ligue 1 table

Ligue 1 table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
11Toulouse9-110
12Strasbourg9-210
13Auxerre9-1010
14Stade Brestois 298+29
15Angers9-88
16Estac Troyes9-98
17Le Mans9-77
18Le Havre9-112
See full table ›

Top scorers

Ligue 1 top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1L. SinayokoParis FC98
2E. LepaulRennes77
3C. ArcherAuxerre76
4A. GouiriMarseille96
5E. WahiNice86

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatEstac TroyesLens
Played01
Wins00
Draws00
Losses01
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)02
Clean sheets00
Failed to score01
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.50/01/1
Over 2.50/00/1
Over 3.50/00/1
BTTS – yes0/00/1

Match preview

Estac Troyes host Lens in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 7) at Stade de l'Aube, Troyes, with kick-off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 19:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Lens favourites, giving Estac Troyes a 24% chance of winning, 24% for the draw and 52% for Lens. Our tip is: Lens or draw.

Lens have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 and a 61% chance that both teams score.

Competition
France Ligue 1
Date
Saturday, 17 October 2026, 19:45 WAT
Venue
Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Estac Troyes vs Lens?

Estac Troyes vs Lens kicks off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Estac Troyes vs Lens in?

The match is in the France Ligue 1.

Where are Estac Troyes and Lens in the table?

Estac Troyes are 16th and Lens are 9th in the Ligue 1.

Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lens?

Our prediction is Lens or draw. Win probabilities: Estac Troyes 24%, draw 24%, Lens 52%.

Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lens?

We estimate a 61% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estac Troyes vs Lens?

We estimate a 60% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Ligue 1 on Sat 17 Oct

FTStrasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint Germain2 ✓FTLille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29Over 1.5 ✓

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