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Metz vs PAU prediction

Metz vs PAU prediction for the Ligue 2 on 30 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (78%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday30October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 11
MetzPAU
1 - 3Full time · Fri 30 OctHT 0-1
Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz

Match events

MetzPAU
  1. 11'Goal: Cheikh FallAssist: Jessy Benet
  2. 18'Missed penalty: Jessy Benet
  3. Substitution: Jahyann PandoreOff: Abdourahmane Mbodj45'
  4. Substitution: Bryan SongOff: Ibou Sane45'
  5. Yellow card: Cristian CastroFoul45+3'

HT 0-1

  1. 58'Yellow card: Axel BambaDissent
  2. 61'Substitution: Abdel Hakim AbdallahOff: Souleymane Basse
  3. 61'Substitution: Jeremy SebasOff: Babacar Leye
  4. Substitution: Urie-Michel MboulaOff: Florian Miguel62'
  5. 64'Goal: Cheikh FallAssist: Babacar Leye
  6. Substitution: Idris MohamedOff: Abdoulaye Agne Ba67'
  7. 68'Goal: Hacene Benali
  8. Penalty goal: Teji Savanier (pen)75'
  9. 76'Substitution: Hacene BenaliOff: Alexis Lefebvre
  10. Substitution: Nathan MbalaOff: Hamza Kadamani79'
  11. Yellow card: Teji SavanierFoul85'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

78%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-3

Expected goals2.9

Win probability

1 · Metz46%
Fair odds 2.17
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · PAU29%
Fair odds 3.45

Match statistics

  • 69%Possession31%
  • 1.78Expected goals (xG)2.14
  • 17Total shots9
  • 4Shots on target5
  • 6Shots off target3
  • 7Blocked shots1
  • 9Shots inside the box8
  • 8Corners4
  • 2Offsides2
  • 12Fouls9
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves4
  • 726Passes332
  • 674Accurate passes250

Line-ups

Metz

4-1-4-1

Starting XI

  1. 1J. FischerG
  2. 70B. SarrD
  3. 42C. DevenishD
  4. 5J. RuizD
  5. 4U. MboulaD
  6. 98I. MohamedM
  7. 33Abdourahmane MbodjM
  8. 8J. DeminguetM
  9. 10T. SavanierM
  10. 39B. SongM
  11. 22N. MbalaF

Substitutes

  1. 12A. TouréM
  2. 38H. KadamaniM
  3. 2M. ColinD
  4. 88A. Agne BaF
  5. 3F. MiguelD
  6. 18B. MunongoM
  7. 21J. PandoreF
  8. 7Ibou SanéF
  9. 61P. SyG

Coach: Grégory Proment

PAU

5-3-2

Starting XI

  1. 1B. MaubleuG
  2. 39M. TourraineD
  3. 29G. PaquiezD
  4. 23A. BriançonD
  5. 88A. BambaD
  6. 97A. AbdallahD
  7. 6C. FallM
  8. 21J. BenetM
  9. 5L. RajotM
  10. 7H. BenaliF
  11. 18J. SebasF

Substitutes

  1. 10B. BrahimiM
  2. 4A. DodoteD
  3. 27L. GadegbekuM
  4. 11A. LefebvreF
  5. 9B. LeyeF
  6. 22R. BahengD
  7. 19T. SaettelF
  8. 8S. BasseD
  9. 30E. SallesG

Coach: Thierry Debes

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.23
0.5 goalsOver94.2%Under5.8%
1.5 goalsOver77.7%Under22.3%
2.5 goalsOver54.2%Under45.8%
3.5 goalsOver31.9%Under68.1%
4.5 goalsOver16.0%Under84.0%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

MetzPAU
40%Form60%
50%Attack50%
40%Defence60%
50%Head to head50%
57%Expected goals43%
61%Overall39%

Last matches

Newest first
Metz1W 1D 0L · last 2
DDunkerque vs Metz23 Oct 2026 · Ligue 21-1WMetz vs Sochaux17 Oct 2026 · Ligue 23-2
PAU2W 0D 0L · last 2
WPAU vs Grenoble23 Oct 2026 · Ligue 22-1WGuingamp vs PAU16 Oct 2026 · Ligue 21-2

Ligue 2 table

Ligue 2 table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3PAU11+520
4Nancy10+419
5Reims10+818
6RED Star FC 9310+117
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
11Rodez11-513
12Dunkerque11-312
13Sochaux10-411
14Boulogne11-110
15Nantes11-69
16Laval11-79
17Clermont Foot11-58
18Grenoble11-108
See full table ›

Top scorers

Ligue 2 top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1Y. FofanaReims108
2P. FallMetz108
3A. BoakyeSaint Etienne116
4I. CardonaSaint Etienne115
5T. BalloSaint Etienne115

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatMetzPAU
Played22
Wins12
Draws10
Losses00
Goals for (avg)22
Goals against (avg)1.51
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak12

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/22/2
Over 2.51/22/2
Over 3.51/20/2
BTTS – yes2/22/2

Match preview

Metz host PAU in the Ligue 2 (Regular Season - 11) at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz, with kick-off on Friday, 30 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Metz slight favourites, giving Metz a 46% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 29% for PAU. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Metz have taken 4 points from their last 2 games (1W 1D 0L). PAU have taken 6 points from their last 2 games (2W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 54% chance of over 2.5 and a 57% chance that both teams score.

Competition
France Ligue 2
Date
Friday, 30 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Metz vs PAU?

Metz vs PAU kicks off on Friday, 30 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Metz vs PAU in?

The match is in the France Ligue 2.

Where are Metz and PAU in the table?

Metz are 10th and PAU are 3rd in the Ligue 2.

Who will win Metz vs PAU?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Metz 46%, draw 25%, PAU 29%.

Will both teams score in Metz vs PAU?

We estimate a 57% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Metz vs PAU?

We estimate a 54% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Ligue 2 on Fri 30 Oct

FTGrenoble 1-3 DijonOver 1.5 ✓FTLaval 1-0 Boulogne1X ✓FTRodez 1-0 Dunkerque1X ✓FTNantes 1-1 Clermont FootOver 1.5 ✓

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