Draw predictions this weekend

Draws are the hardest result to predict, and even the likeliest draw is rarely above 35%. They pay well for the same reason. Our draw model works out each side's expected goals from its home and away scoring and conceding records, adds up the chance of every level score (0-0, 1-1, 2-2…) with the Dixon–Coles correction for low scores, and lists only the matches whose draw chance reaches the level it chose on past results. On some days no match qualifies, and we would rather list none than force a pick.