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Waterford vs Drogheda United prediction

Waterford vs Drogheda United prediction for the Premier Division on 23 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (79%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday23October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Premier Division · Regular Season - 35
WaterfordDrogheda United
3 - 1Full time · Fri 23 OctHT 1-1
Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Waterford

Match events

WaterfordDrogheda United
  1. 24'Goal: Leo BurneyAssist: Conor Kane
  2. 42'Substitution: Warren DavisOff: Mark Doyle
  3. Goal: H. CannAssist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto43'

HT 1-1

  1. Goal: C.NoonanAssist: Tom Lonergan67'
  2. 71'Substitution: ethan brien oOff: Alfie Bates
  3. 71'Substitution: Shane FarrellOff: Keegan Ancelin
  4. 79'Substitution: Ryan MarkeyOff: Leo Burney
  5. Goal: Padraig AmondAssist: Evan McLaughlin83'
  6. Substitution: C.NoonanOff: Dean Mcmenamy86'
  7. Substitution: Evan McLaughlinOff: Luke Heeney86'
  8. Yellow card: Luke HeeneyArgument88'
  9. 90+2'Yellow card: Conor KeeleyDissent

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

79%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-1

Expected goals2.9

Win probability

1 · Waterford50%
Fair odds 2.00
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · Drogheda United25%
Fair odds 4.00

Match statistics

  • 59%Possession41%
  • 2.05Expected goals (xG)1.08
  • 18Total shots11
  • 7Shots on target2
  • 7Shots off target6
  • 4Blocked shots3
  • 14Shots inside the box7
  • 7Corners3
  • 4Offsides4
  • 8Fouls5
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Goalkeeper saves3
  • 370Passes262
  • 247Accurate passes152

Line-ups

Waterford

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1S. McMullanG
  2. 16H. CannD
  3. 5J. MahonD
  4. 13K. LongD
  5. 3Benny CoutoD
  6. 2J. HoustonM
  7. 7N. MaweneM
  8. 8E. McLaughlinM
  9. 10C. NoonanM
  10. 9P. AmondF
  11. 18T. LonerganF

Substitutes

  1. 32G. AmeduD
  2. 6J. AshtonD
  3. 11T. CoyleF
  4. 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
  5. 17J. FariaM
  6. 15L. HeeneyM
  7. 27D. McMenamyM
  8. 20J. VoilåsF
  9. 12B. McKenzieD
  10. 50Noah O'BrienD

Coach: G. Coughlan

Drogheda United

3-5-2

Starting XI

  1. 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
  2. 4A. QuinnD
  3. 22C. KeeleyD
  4. 5Leo BurneyD
  5. 2E. AgbajeM
  6. 8Ethan O'BrienM
  7. 10B. KavanaghM
  8. 17S. FarrellM
  9. 3C. KaneM
  10. 24W. DavisF
  11. 11T. OluwaF

Substitutes

  1. 14M. DoyleF
  2. 36theo hennessyG
  3. 31K. CruiseD
  4. 18J. BolgerD
  5. 15A. BatesM
  6. 25R. MarkeyF
  7. 9K. AncelinF
  8. 6J. GoddenM
  9. 32D. MareD

Coach: K. Doherty

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.18
0.5 goalsOver94.6%Under5.4%
1.5 goalsOver78.9%Under21.1%
2.5 goalsOver55.9%Under44.1%
3.5 goalsOver33.5%Under66.5%
4.5 goalsOver17.1%Under82.9%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

WaterfordDrogheda United
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
9%Defence91%
50%Head to head50%
60%Expected goals40%
67%Overall33%

Last matches

Newest first
Waterford1W 0D 1L · last 2
WWaterford vs Galway United19 Oct 2026 · Premier Division3-2LBohemians vs Waterford16 Oct 2026 · Premier Division2-1
Drogheda United1W 0D 0L · last 1
WDrogheda United vs Derry City16 Oct 2026 · Premier Division2-0

Premier Division table

Premier Division table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Waterford4+39
2Drogheda United3+26
3Bohemians3+16
4Shelbourne3+16
5Derry City3-14
6Galway United4-14
7Dundalk2+13
8Shamrock Rovers303
9St Patrick's Athl.3-21
10Sligo Rovers2-41
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatWaterfordDrogheda United
Played21
Wins11
Draws00
Losses10
Goals for (avg)22
Goals against (avg)20
Clean sheets01
Failed to score00
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/21/1
Over 2.52/20/1
Over 3.51/20/1
BTTS – yes2/20/1

Match preview

Waterford host Drogheda United in the Premier Division (Regular Season - 35) at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Waterford, with kick-off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 19:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Waterford favourites, giving Waterford a 50% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 25% for Drogheda United. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Waterford have taken 3 points from their last 2 games (1W 0D 1L). Drogheda United have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 and a 58% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Ireland Premier Division
Date
Friday, 23 October 2026, 19:45 WAT
Venue
Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Waterford

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Waterford vs Drogheda United?

Waterford vs Drogheda United kicks off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Waterford vs Drogheda United in?

The match is in the Ireland Premier Division.

Where are Waterford and Drogheda United in the table?

Waterford are 1st and Drogheda United are 2nd in the Premier Division.

Who will win Waterford vs Drogheda United?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Waterford 50%, draw 25%, Drogheda United 25%.

Will both teams score in Waterford vs Drogheda United?

We estimate a 58% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Waterford vs Drogheda United?

We estimate a 56% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Premier Division on Fri 23 Oct

FTDerry City 2-1 Dundalk1X ✓FTGalway United 0-0 St Patrick's Athl.2 ✗FTBohemians 0-1 Shelbourne1 ✗FTShamrock Rovers 4-0 Sligo RoversOver 2.5 ✓

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