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Drogheda United vs Derry City prediction

Drogheda United vs Derry City prediction for the Premier Division on 16 Oct 2026: Derry City or draw (70%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday16October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Premier Division · Regular Season - 34
Drogheda UnitedNo recent gamesDerry CityNo recent games
2 - 0Full time · Fri 16 OctHT 1-0
United Park, Drogheda

Match events

Drogheda UnitedDerry City
  1. Goal: Brandon Kavanagh7'
  2. 23'Yellow card: nick twiskFoul

HT 1-0

  1. Yellow card: Thomas OluwaDissent62'
  2. Yellow card: Edwin AgbajeFoul62'
  3. 63'Substitution: Tyler·SmithOff: James Clarke
  4. 63'Substitution: Darragh BurnsOff: Kévin Santos
  5. Substitution: Thomas OluwaOff: Mark Doyle69'
  6. Substitution: Brandon KavanaghOff: Alfie Bates69'
  7. 75'Substitution: Conor BarryOff: Gavin Whyte
  8. Substitution: Shane FarrellOff: Jago Godden77'
  9. 79'Yellow card: Jamie StottFoul
  10. Goal: Mark Doyle83'
  11. Substitution: Warren DavisOff: Keegan Ancelin87'
  12. Yellow card: Jago GoddenFoul90+2'

Our verdict

X2 ✗

Derry City or draw

Bet365 1.33

70%

✗ This tip lost · final score 2-0

Expected goals2.5

Win probability

1 · Drogheda United30%
Fair odds 3.33
X · Draw28%
Fair odds 3.57
2 · Derry City42%
Fair odds 2.38

Match statistics

  • 21%Possession79%
  • 0.92Expected goals (xG)1.33
  • 4Total shots29
  • 2Shots on target5
  • 1Shots off target11
  • 1Blocked shots13
  • 1Shots inside the box9
  • 4Corners11
  • 0Offsides2
  • 7Fouls7
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 5Goalkeeper saves0
  • 164Passes610
  • 76Accurate passes508

Line-ups

Drogheda United

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
  2. 4A. QuinnD
  3. 22C. KeeleyD
  4. 5Leo BurneyD
  5. 2E. AgbajeM
  6. 8Ethan O'BrienM
  7. 17S. FarrellM
  8. 3C. KaneM
  9. 10B. KavanaghM
  10. 24W. DavisM
  11. 11T. OluwaF

Substitutes

  1. 15A. BatesM
  2. 9K. AncelinF
  3. 18J. BolgerD
  4. 31K. CruiseD
  5. 14M. DoyleF
  6. 6J. GoddenM
  7. 36theo hennessyG
  8. 32D. MareD
  9. 25R. MarkeyF

Coach: K. Doherty

Derry City

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 13Tom NorcottG
  2. 23C. DummiganD
  3. 4J. StottD
  4. 3Patrick McCleanD
  5. 19B. FlemingD
  6. 22C. BarrM
  7. 17N. TwiskM
  8. 14E. ChapmanM
  9. 21Kévin SantosF
  10. 29T. SmithF
  11. 7M. DuffyF

Substitutes

  1. 11G. WhyteM
  2. 15J. ClarkeM
  3. 32T. DohertyF
  4. 25Christy GroganD
  5. 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
  6. 1B. MaherG
  7. 10D. MarkeyM
  8. 12D. BurnsM
  9. 34C. O'DonnellM

Coach: Mark Connolly

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.38
0.5 goalsOver91.7%Under8.3%
1.5 goalsOver71.1%Under28.9%
2.5 goalsOver45.4%Under54.6%
3.5 goalsOver24.0%Under76.0%
4.5 goalsOver10.7%Under89.3%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Drogheda UnitedDerry City
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
45%Expected goals55%
42%Overall58%

Last matches

Newest first
Drogheda United0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Derry City0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Premier Division table

Premier Division table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Waterford4+39
2Drogheda United3+26
3Bohemians3+16
4Shelbourne3+16
5Derry City3-14
6Galway United4-14
7Dundalk2+13
8Shamrock Rovers303
9St Patrick's Athl.3-21
10Sligo Rovers2-41
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatDrogheda UnitedDerry City
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Drogheda United host Derry City in the Premier Division (Regular Season - 34) at United Park, Drogheda, with kick-off on Friday, 16 October 2026 at 19:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Derry City slight favourites, giving Drogheda United a 30% chance of winning, 28% for the draw and 42% for Derry City. Our tip is: Derry City or draw.

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Ireland Premier Division
Date
Friday, 16 October 2026, 19:45 WAT
Venue
United Park, Drogheda

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Drogheda United vs Derry City?

Drogheda United vs Derry City kicks off on Friday, 16 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Drogheda United vs Derry City in?

The match is in the Ireland Premier Division.

Where are Drogheda United and Derry City in the table?

Drogheda United are 2nd and Derry City are 5th in the Premier Division.

Who will win Drogheda United vs Derry City?

Our prediction is Derry City or draw. Win probabilities: Drogheda United 30%, draw 28%, Derry City 42%.

Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?

We estimate a 51% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Drogheda United vs Derry City?

We estimate a 45% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Premier Division on Fri 16 Oct

FTBohemians 2-1 Waterford1 ✓FTGalway United 2-0 Shamrock RoversOver 1.5 ✓FTSt Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shelbourne1 ✗

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