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Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction

Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction for the La Liga on 18 Oct 2026: Real Sociedad or draw (70%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday18October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
La Liga · Regular Season - 9
MalagaNo recent gamesReal Sociedad
2 - 5Full time · Sun 18 OctHT 0-2
La Rosaleda, Malaga

Match events

MalagaReal Sociedad
  1. 3'Goal: Takefusa KuboAssist: Hector Fort
  2. 26'Goal: Orri Steinn Óskarsson
  3. 37'Yellow card: Jon MartinFoul
  4. Substitution: Ramón EnríquezOff: Izan Merino45'
  5. Substitution: Adam AznouOff: José Salinas45'

HT 0-2

  1. Goal: Adrian NinoAssist: Pablo Martínez Andrés54'
  2. 59'Goal: Mikel OyarzabalAssist: Takefusa Kubo
  3. 61'Substitution: Ander BarrenetxeaOff: Gonçalo Guedes
  4. 61'Substitution: Hector FortOff: Igor Zubeldia
  5. 62'Yellow card: Mamadou SarrFoul
  6. Substitution: Dani LorenzoOff: Carlos Dotor64'
  7. Goal: Pablo Martínez Andrés66'
  8. 67'Goal: Mikel OyarzabalAssist: Jon Martin
  9. Substitution: Joaquín MuñozOff: David Larrubia68'
  10. 71'Substitution: Sergio GómezOff: Aihen Muñoz
  11. 71'Substitution: Takefusa KuboOff: Job Ochieng
  12. 73'Goal: Gonçalo Guedes
  13. 79'Substitution: Orri Steinn ÓskarssonOff: Alex Marchal García
  14. Substitution: Adrian NinoOff: Carlos Puga82'

Our verdict

X2 ✓

Real Sociedad or draw

Bet365 1.30

70%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-5

Expected goals2.8

Win probability

1 · Malaga30%
Fair odds 3.33
X · Draw26%
Fair odds 3.85
2 · Real Sociedad44%
Fair odds 2.27

Match statistics

  • 46%Possession54%
  • 1.10Expected goals (xG)2.41
  • 17Total shots21
  • 6Shots on target9
  • 7Shots off target6
  • 4Blocked shots6
  • 12Shots inside the box12
  • 4Corners5
  • 2Offsides2
  • 3Fouls9
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Goalkeeper saves4
  • 478Passes586
  • 413Accurate passes523

Line-ups

Malaga

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1Alfonso HerreroG
  2. 31RafitaD
  3. 20Fernando CaleroD
  4. 15Ángel RecioD
  5. 12José SalinasD
  6. 10David LarrubiaM
  7. 23Izan MerinoM
  8. 8Carlos DotorM
  9. 18Pablo MartínezM
  10. 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
  11. 9ChupeF

Substitutes

  1. 6Ramón EnríquezM
  2. 7H. AbaidaF
  3. 4Einar GalileaD
  4. 17Eneko JauregiF
  5. 22Dani LorenzoM
  6. 13Carlos LópezG
  7. 11Joaquín MuñozF
  8. 5Álex PastorD
  9. 3PugaD
  10. 14Rafa RodríguezM
  11. 2J. CajusteM
  12. 39Adam Aznou Ben CheikhD

Coach: Funes

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1Álex RemiroG
  2. 22Héctor FortD
  3. 6Jon MartínD
  4. 19M. SarrD
  5. 3Aihen MuñozD
  6. 14T. KuboM
  7. 4Jon GorrotxategiM
  8. 18Carlos SolerM
  9. 7BarrenetxeaM
  10. 10Mikel OyarzabalF
  11. 9O. ÓskarssonF

Substitutes

  1. 11Gonçalo GuedesF
  2. 17Sergio GómezF
  3. 28A. LebarbierM
  4. 29Alex GarciaF
  5. 13Unai MarreroG
  6. 12J. OchiengF
  7. 16Jon PachecoD
  8. 24L. SučićM
  9. 8Beñat TurrientesM
  10. 23A. ZakharyanM
  11. 5ZubeldiaD
  12. 27Gorka CarreraF

Coach: P. Matarazzo

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.54
0.5 goalsOver93.7%Under6.3%
1.5 goalsOver76.4%Under23.6%
2.5 goalsOver52.3%Under47.7%
3.5 goalsOver30.1%Under69.9%
4.5 goalsOver14.8%Under85.2%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

MalagaReal Sociedad
0%Form100%
0%Attack100%
83%Defence17%
50%Head to head50%
44%Expected goals56%
41%Overall59%

Last matches

Newest first
Malaga0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Real Sociedad0W 1D 0L · last 1
DUnion St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad15 Oct 2026 · Europa League1-1

La Liga table

La Liga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
11Rayo Vallecano10-512
12Getafe11-812
13Deportivo La Coruna10011
14Espanyol11-111
15Osasuna10-1011
16Racing Santander11-1411
17Elche11-410
18Levante11-510
19Valencia11-99
20Malaga11-135
See full table ›

Top scorers

La Liga top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1RaphinhaBarcelona1015
2Kylian MbappéReal Madrid1011
3Lamine YamalBarcelona1110
4M. ZabiriRacing Santander108
5Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano117

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatMalagaReal Sociedad
Played01
Wins00
Draws01
Losses00
Goals for (avg)01
Goals against (avg)01
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.50/01/1
Over 2.50/00/1
Over 3.50/00/1
BTTS – yes0/01/1

Match preview

Malaga host Real Sociedad in the La Liga (Regular Season - 9) at La Rosaleda, Malaga, with kick-off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 17:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Real Sociedad slight favourites, giving Malaga a 30% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 44% for Real Sociedad. Our tip is: Real Sociedad or draw.

Real Sociedad have taken 1 points from their last 1 games (0W 1D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 52% chance of over 2.5 and a 56% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Spain La Liga
Date
Sunday, 18 October 2026, 17:30 WAT
Venue
La Rosaleda, Malaga

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

Malaga vs Real Sociedad kicks off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Malaga vs Real Sociedad in?

The match is in the Spain La Liga.

Where are Malaga and Real Sociedad in the table?

Malaga are 20th and Real Sociedad are 5th in the La Liga.

Who will win Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

Our prediction is Real Sociedad or draw. Win probabilities: Malaga 30%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 44%.

Will both teams score in Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

We estimate a 56% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

We estimate a 52% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More La Liga on Sun 18 Oct

FTOsasuna 2-0 Racing SantanderOver 1.5 ✓FTCelta Vigo 2-1 AlavesUnder 3.5 ✓FTReal Madrid 4-1 Sevilla1 ✓

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