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Newport County vs Chesterfield prediction

Newport County vs Chesterfield prediction for the League Two on 30 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday30October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
League Two · Regular Season - 14
Newport CountyChesterfield
4 - 1Full time · Fri 30 OctHT 4-0
Rodney Parade, Newport

Match events

Newport CountyChesterfield
  1. 13'Yellow card: Remeao HuttonFoul
  2. Goal: Cameron Norman14'
  3. 17'Yellow card: George McEachran
  4. Goal: Thomas DaviesAssist: Harrison Biggins18'
  5. 21'Yellow card: Paul Anthony CookDissent
  6. 23'Yellow card: Liam MandevilleDissent
  7. Goal: Harrison BigginsAssist: Michael Adu-Poku29'
  8. Goal: Yahya Bamba45+2'

HT 4-0

  1. 49'Red card: Paul Anthony Cook
  2. 58'Goal: Liam MandevilleAssist: Remeao Hutton
  3. 58'Substitution: Lee BonisOff: F. Bryden
  4. 59'Substitution: Dilan MarkandayOff: Louie Marsh
  5. Substitution: Yahya BambaOff: Kieron Thomas Evans64'
  6. 70'Substitution: Josh KoromaOff: Dylan Duffy
  7. 71'Substitution: George McEachranOff: Joel Randall
  8. Yellow card: Ciaran BrennanFoul76'
  9. 78'Substitution: Tom PearceOff: Lewis Gordon
  10. Substitution: Thomas DaviesOff: joe thomas79'
  11. Substitution: Michael Adu-PokuOff: Gerard Garner79'
  12. Substitution: Matthew SmithOff: Cameron Evans87'
  13. Substitution: Kion EteteOff: James Crole87'
  14. Yellow card: Gerard GarnerTime Wasting89'
  15. 90+4'Yellow card: Jack SimpsonFoul

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.25

76%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-1

Expected goals2.7

Win probability

1 · Newport County29%
Fair odds 3.45
X · Draw27%
Fair odds 3.70
2 · Chesterfield44%
Fair odds 2.27

Match statistics

  • 72%Possession71%
  • 1.25Expected goals (xG)1.41
  • 21Total shots12
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 11Shots off target4
  • 5Blocked shots5
  • 14Shots inside the box9
  • 6Corners4
  • 1Offsides6
  • 12Fouls12
  • 2Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Goalkeeper saves1
  • 194Passes510
  • 113Accurate passes417

Line-ups

Newport County

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1J. WrightG
  2. 22C. NormanD
  3. 5L. JenkinsD
  4. 4K. CameronD
  5. 3T. DaviesD
  6. 8M. SmithM
  7. 6C. BrennanM
  8. 23M. Adu-PokuM
  9. 10H. BigginsM
  10. 20Y. BambaM
  11. 28K. EteteF

Substitutes

  1. 11J. CroleF
  2. 2C. EvansM
  3. 7K. EvansM
  4. 19G. GarnerF
  5. 34D. SassiD
  6. 12Joe ThomasD
  7. 25J. TurnerG

Coach: H. Mullins

Chesterfield

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Z. HemmingG
  2. 33R. HuttonD
  3. 15A. PondD
  4. 6J. SimpsonD
  5. 46T. PearceD
  6. 4T. NaylorM
  7. 20G. McEachranM
  8. 24D. MarkandayM
  9. 7L. MandevilleM
  10. 37J. KoromaM
  11. 9F. BrydenF

Substitutes

  1. 18L. MarshF
  2. 5K. McFadzeanD
  3. 31J. RandallM
  4. 8R. StirkM
  5. 11D. DuffyM
  6. 19L. GordonD
  7. 10L. BonisF

Coach: P. Cook

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.51
0.5 goalsOver93.3%Under6.7%
1.5 goalsOver75.1%Under24.9%
2.5 goalsOver50.6%Under49.4%
3.5 goalsOver28.6%Under71.4%
4.5 goalsOver13.7%Under86.3%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Newport CountyChesterfield
67%Form33%
75%Attack25%
40%Defence60%
50%Head to head50%
44%Expected goals56%
40%Overall60%

Last matches

Newest first
Newport County0W 2D 0L · last 2
DRotherham vs Newport County20 Oct 2026 · League Two2-2DNewport County vs York17 Oct 2026 · League Two1-1
Chesterfield0W 1D 1L · last 2
DChesterfield vs Colchester20 Oct 2026 · League Two1-1LPort Vale vs Chesterfield17 Oct 2026 · League Two1-0

League Two table

League Two table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
11Tranmere14+219
12Exeter City14+219
13Swindon Town14-219
14Newport County14+318
15Shrewsbury14-518
16Fleetwood Town14017
17Bristol Rovers14-616
18Port Vale12-415
19Rochdale14-915
20Northampton12014
21Oldham13-512
22Rotherham14-712
23Colchester13-712
24Crawley Town12-89
See full table ›

Top scorers

League Two top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1K. TshimangaBarnet1210
2A. DrinanSwindon Town138
3C. McCannCheltenham128
4A. PressleyWalsall118
5P. MullinRotherham138

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatNewport CountyChesterfield
Played22
Wins00
Draws21
Losses01
Goals for (avg)1.50.5
Goals against (avg)1.51
Clean sheets00
Failed to score01
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.52/21/2
Over 2.51/20/2
Over 3.51/20/2
BTTS – yes2/21/2

Match preview

Newport County host Chesterfield in the League Two (Regular Season - 14) at Rodney Parade, Newport, with kick-off on Friday, 30 October 2026 at 20:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Chesterfield slight favourites, giving Newport County a 29% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 44% for Chesterfield. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Newport County have taken 2 points from their last 2 games (0W 2D 0L). Chesterfield have taken 1 points from their last 2 games (0W 1D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 and a 55% chance that both teams score.

Competition
England League Two
Date
Friday, 30 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
Venue
Rodney Parade, Newport

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Newport County vs Chesterfield?

Newport County vs Chesterfield kicks off on Friday, 30 October 2026 at 20:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Newport County vs Chesterfield in?

The match is in the England League Two.

Where are Newport County and Chesterfield in the table?

Newport County are 14th and Chesterfield are 10th in the League Two.

Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Newport County 29%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 44%.

Will both teams score in Newport County vs Chesterfield?

We estimate a 55% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newport County vs Chesterfield?

We estimate a 51% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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