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Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC prediction

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC prediction for the Champions League on 14 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (73%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Wednesday14October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Champions League · League Stage - 2
Shakhtar DonetskNo recent gamesAEK Athens FCNo recent games
3 - 1Full time · Wed 14 OctHT 1-1
Stamford Bridge, London

Match events

Shakhtar DonetskAEK Athens FC
  1. 18'Yellow card: Lovro MajerFoul
  2. 28'Goal: Lovro MajerAssist: Stavros Pilios
  3. VAR: AlissonPenalty confirmedVAR31'
  4. Penalty goal: Pedrinho (pen)34'
  5. 42'Yellow card: Harold MoukoudiFoul

HT 1-1

  1. Yellow card: Marlon GomesFoul54'
  2. 61'Yellow card: Răzvan MarinFoul
  3. Substitution: NewertonOff: Gleiker Mendoza63'
  4. Substitution: IsaqueOff: Pedrinho63'
  5. 71'Substitution: Ambrósini António Cabaça SalvadorOff: Mijat Gaćinović
  6. 71'Substitution: Lovro MajerOff: João Mário
  7. 78'Substitution: Milan VitálisOff: Kaan Kairinen
  8. 79'Substitution: Luka JovicOff: Barnabás Varga
  9. Goal: Vinícius TobiasAssist: Alisson80'
  10. Substitution: Egor NazarynaOff: Marlon Gomes81'
  11. 83'Substitution: Răzvan MarinOff: Oleksandr Zubkov
  12. Goal: Gleiker MendozaAssist: Isaque86'
  13. Substitution: AlissonOff: Lucas Ferreira87'
  14. Substitution: Luca MeirellesOff: Kauã Elias87'
  15. 90'Yellow card: Barnabás VargaFoul

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.30

73%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-1

Expected goals2.5

Win probability

1 · Shakhtar Donetsk38%
Fair odds 2.63
X · Draw28%
Fair odds 3.57
2 · AEK Athens FC34%
Fair odds 2.94

Match statistics

  • 54%Possession46%
  • 1.39Expected goals (xG)1.12
  • 12Total shots13
  • 4Shots on target3
  • 3Shots off target7
  • 5Blocked shots3
  • 5Shots inside the box8
  • 5Corners2
  • 4Offsides2
  • 16Fouls17
  • 1Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves1
  • 447Passes367
  • 402Accurate passes314

Line-ups

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1

Starting XI

  1. 31D. RiznykG
  2. 17Vinícius TobiasD
  3. 5V. BondarD
  4. 22M. MatvienkoD
  5. 13PedrinhoD
  6. 27O. OcheretkoM
  7. 30Alisson SantanaM
  8. 10PedrinhoM
  9. 6Marlon GomesM
  10. 11NewerttonM
  11. 9Kauã EliasF

Substitutes

  1. 99BruninhoM
  2. 23K. FesyunG
  3. 25Gabriel CarvalhoF
  4. 14IsaqueM
  5. 20O. KaravaevM
  6. 8D. KryskivM
  7. 49Luca MeirellesF
  8. 37Lucas FerreiraM
  9. 77G. MendozaM
  10. 29E. NazarynaM
  11. 2L. TraoréF
  12. 24V. TsukanovM

Coach: A. Turan

AEK Athens FC

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 91A. BrignoliG
  2. 12L. RotaD
  3. 2H. MoukoudiD
  4. 44Filipe RelvasD
  5. 3S. PiliosD
  6. 14L. MajerM
  7. 27M. VitálisM
  8. 18R. MarinM
  9. 11A. KoitaM
  10. 90ZiniF
  11. 9L. JovićF

Substitutes

  1. 21D. VidaD
  2. 10O. ZubkovM
  3. 19B. VargaF
  4. 20P. MantalosM
  5. 22C. LykogiannisD
  6. 6K. KairinenM
  7. 23João MárioM
  8. 8M. GaćinovićM
  9. 41Marios BalamotisG
  10. 16K. ArriagaM

Coach: M. Nikolić

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.23
0.5 goalsOver92.2%Under7.8%
1.5 goalsOver72.3%Under27.7%
2.5 goalsOver46.9%Under53.1%
3.5 goalsOver25.3%Under74.7%
4.5 goalsOver11.6%Under88.4%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Shakhtar DonetskAEK Athens FC
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
52%Expected goals48%
53%Overall47%

Last matches

Newest first
Shakhtar Donetsk0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

AEK Athens FC0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Champions League table

Champions League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
11Club Brugge KV3+36
12Sporting CP3+36
13Borussia Dortmund3+16
14Bayern München3+55
15AS Roma3+34
16Atletico Madrid3+14
17Shakhtar Donetsk3+14
18PSV Eindhoven304
19Villarreal303
20Inter3-13
21Manchester United3-13
22Napoli3-23
23Galatasaray3-33
24Lask Linz3-33
25Sabah FA3-33
26Feyenoord3-43
27Lens3-43
28Bodo/Glimt3-53
29AEK Athens FC3-53
30RB Leipzig3-53
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34FC Porto3-40
35Lille3-60
36Slovan Bratislava3-120
See full table ›

Top scorers

Champions League top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1J. MickelsSabah FA114
2E. DemirovićVfB Stuttgart34
3E. HaalandManchester City24
4S. GuirassyBorussia Dortmund34
5H. KaneBayern München34

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatShakhtar DonetskAEK Athens FC
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Shakhtar Donetsk host AEK Athens FC in the Champions League (League Stage - 2) at Stamford Bridge, London, with kick-off on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Shakhtar Donetsk narrow favourites, giving Shakhtar Donetsk a 38% chance of winning, 28% for the draw and 34% for AEK Athens FC. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Europe Champions League
Date
Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Stamford Bridge, London

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC kicks off on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC in?

The match is in the Europe Champions League.

Where are Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC in the table?

Shakhtar Donetsk are 17th and AEK Athens FC are 29th in the Champions League.

Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 38%, draw 28%, AEK Athens FC 34%.

Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?

We estimate a 52% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?

We estimate a 47% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Champions League on Wed 14 Oct

FTLask Linz 3-6 Liverpool2 ✓FTFeyenoord 3-2 Como12 ✓FTSlovan Bratislava 0-3 VfB Stuttgart2 ✓FTAS Roma 3-4 Real MadridX2 ✓FTBodo/Glimt 1-0 Borussia DortmundX2 ✗FTManchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain12 ✓FTAston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe12 ✓FTReal Betis 3-2 FC PortoOver 1.5 ✓

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