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Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction for the Scottish Premiership on 17 Oct 2026: Motherwell or draw (72%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday17October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Scottish Premiership · Regular Season - 9
KilmarnockNo recent gamesMotherwellNo recent games
3 - 2Full time · Sat 17 OctHT 1-1
Rugby Park, Kilmarnock

Match events

KilmarnockMotherwell
  1. Goal: Greg Kiltie2'
  2. 17'Goal: Alex·Lowry
  3. Substitution: Jamie BrandonOff: Michael-John Kamson-Kamara33'
  4. Substitution: Bailey RiceOff: Aaron Tshibola35'

HT 1-1

  1. VAR: George StangerRed card cancelledVAR52'
  2. Yellow card: George StangerFoul55'
  3. 56'Goal: Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
  4. Goal: Tyreece John-JulesAssist: Jamie Brandon58'
  5. 68'Substitution: Martin MoormannOff: Jake Max Girdwood-Reich
  6. 68'Substitution: Alex·LowryOff: Jardell Kanga
  7. 68'Substitution: Sebastian Palmer-HouldenOff: Eythor Bjørgolfsson
  8. Goal: Greg KiltieAssist: Jamie Brandon69'
  9. 75'Substitution: Lukas FadingerOff: Dylan Levitt
  10. Substitution: Tyreece John-JulesOff: Djenairo Daniels77'
  11. Substitution: Greg KiltieOff: Ieuan Gwyn Owen77'
  12. 81'Substitution: Tom SparrowOff: Johnny Koutroumbis

Our verdict

X2 ✗

Motherwell or draw

Bet365 1.33

72%

✗ This tip lost · final score 3-2

Expected goals3.0

Win probability

1 · Kilmarnock28%
Fair odds 3.57
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · Motherwell47%
Fair odds 2.13

Match statistics

  • 52%Possession48%
  • 1.56Expected goals (xG)2.40
  • 16Total shots14
  • 6Shots on target6
  • 4Shots off target4
  • 6Blocked shots4
  • 14Shots inside the box9
  • 5Corners3
  • 1Offsides3
  • 9Fouls8
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0
  • 5Goalkeeper saves4
  • 508Passes449
  • 412Accurate passes354

Line-ups

Kilmarnock

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 12C. FerrieG
  2. 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
  3. 4C. McCarthyD
  4. 14G. StangerD
  5. 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  6. 49B. RiceM
  7. 18T. LoweryM
  8. 8E. RingM
  9. 10T. John-JulesM
  10. 11G. KiltieM
  11. 9J. HugillF

Substitutes

  1. 2J. BrandonD
  2. 20N. CleșcencoF
  3. 29D. DanielsF
  4. 6R. DeasD
  5. 58N. MantlG
  6. 5M. O'HaraM
  7. 19J. MeierD
  8. 27I. OwenF
  9. 36A. TshibolaM

Coach: N. McCann

Motherwell

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1A. PaulsenG
  2. 7T. SparrowD
  3. 2S. O'DonnellD
  4. 5M. MoormannD
  5. 45M. EmmanuelD
  6. 8L. FadingerM
  7. 71J. HodgeM
  8. 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
  9. 11A. LowryM
  10. 19I. SaidM
  11. 47S. Palmer-HouldenF

Substitutes

  1. 22J. KoutroumbisD
  2. 63D. LevittM
  3. 21M. ConnellyG
  4. 6J. McGheeD
  5. 77W. VogtF
  6. 13J. KangaM
  7. 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
  8. 15E. Björgólfs­sonF
  9. 4Jamie Knight-LebelD

Coach: Alfred Johansson

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.74
0.5 goalsOver95.2%Under4.8%
1.5 goalsOver80.7%Under19.3%
2.5 goalsOver58.6%Under41.4%
3.5 goalsOver36.2%Under63.8%
4.5 goalsOver19.1%Under80.9%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

KilmarnockMotherwell
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
43%Expected goals57%
37%Overall63%

Last matches

Newest first
Kilmarnock0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Motherwell0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Scottish Premiership table

Scottish Premiership table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
11Kilmarnock12-159
12Hibernian11-68
See full table ›

Top scorers

Scottish Premiership top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1C. DuránCeltic117
2B. NygrenCeltic116
3J. FowlerST Johnstone126
4R. NaderiRangers105
5Cláudio BragaHeart Of Midlothian115

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatKilmarnockMotherwell
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Kilmarnock host Motherwell in the Scottish Premiership (Regular Season - 9) at Rugby Park, Kilmarnock, with kick-off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Motherwell slight favourites, giving Kilmarnock a 28% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 47% for Motherwell. Our tip is: Motherwell or draw.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 and a 60% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Scotland Scottish Premiership
Date
Saturday, 17 October 2026, 15:00 WAT
Venue
Rugby Park, Kilmarnock

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell kicks off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Kilmarnock vs Motherwell in?

The match is in the Scotland Scottish Premiership.

Where are Kilmarnock and Motherwell in the table?

Kilmarnock are 11th and Motherwell are 9th in the Scottish Premiership.

Who will win Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

Our prediction is Motherwell or draw. Win probabilities: Kilmarnock 28%, draw 25%, Motherwell 47%.

Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

We estimate a 60% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

We estimate a 58% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Scottish Premiership on Sat 17 Oct

FTAberdeen 3-1 ST Mirren1X ✓FTST Johnstone 1-1 Dundee UtdX2 ✓FTHibernian 1-2 FalkirkOver 1.5 ✓FTDundee 2-2 Rangers2 ✗

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