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Aberdeen vs ST Mirren prediction

Aberdeen vs ST Mirren prediction for the Scottish Premiership on 17 Oct 2026: Aberdeen or draw (75%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday17October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Scottish Premiership · Regular Season - 9
AberdeenNo recent gamesST MirrenNo recent games
3 - 1Full time · Sat 17 OctHT 1-1
Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

Match events

AberdeenST Mirren
  1. Goal: Brad LyonsAssist: Connor Patrick Ronan2'
  2. 31'Yellow card: Ryan CarrFoul
  3. 42'Goal: Eseosa SuleAssist: Killian Phillips
  4. Substitution: Connor Patrick RonanOff: Stuart Armstrong45'
  5. Substitution: Brad LyonsOff: Tony Yogane45'

HT 1-1

  1. 56'Yellow card: Paul NsioFoul
  2. VAR: Tony YoganePenalty confirmedVAR58'
  3. Missed penalty: Kevin Nisbet58'
  4. Goal: Kevin Nisbet58'
  5. 59'Substitution: Luke ThomasOff: Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares
  6. 67'Substitution: Paul NsioOff: Fraser Taylor
  7. Substitution: Toyosi OlusanyaOff: Ayoub Mouloua71'
  8. Goal: Ayoub MoulouaAssist: Afeez Aremu Olalekan72'
  9. 74'Substitution: Jake YoungOff: Eseosa Sule
  10. Substitution: Emmanuel GyamfiOff: Lewis Smith76'
  11. Yellow card: Stuart ArmstrongFoul77'
  12. Substitution: Kevin NisbetOff: Findlay Marshall90+3'

Our verdict

1X ✓

Aberdeen or draw

Bet365 1.22

75%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-1

Expected goals2.7

Win probability

1 · Aberdeen49%
Fair odds 2.04
X · Draw26%
Fair odds 3.85
2 · ST Mirren25%
Fair odds 4.00

Match statistics

  • 35%Possession65%
  • 2.33Expected goals (xG)0.90
  • 17Total shots13
  • 7Shots on target7
  • 4Shots off target2
  • 6Blocked shots4
  • 10Shots inside the box8
  • 2Corners6
  • 1Offsides0
  • 18Fouls16
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 6Goalkeeper saves4
  • 274Passes543
  • 202Accurate passes449

Line-ups

Aberdeen

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 27M. MüllerG
  2. 28C. CaddenD
  3. 23L. MayoD
  4. 5M. KnoesterD
  5. 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
  6. 8B. LyonsM
  7. 32A. AremuM
  8. 11Lewis SmithM
  9. 25C. RonanM
  10. 20T. OlusanyaM
  11. 15K. NisbetF

Substitutes

  1. 17S. ArmstrongM
  2. 77E. GyamfiD
  3. 26D. HappeD
  4. 30D. KleinG
  5. 40F. MarshallM
  6. 22J. MilneD
  7. 21G. MolloyD
  8. 9A. MoulouaF
  9. 7Tony YoganeF

Coach: S. Robinson

ST Mirren

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1J. ChapmanG
  2. 47C. RamsayD
  3. 13A. GogićD
  4. 22M. FraserD
  5. 3D. JohnD
  6. 16L. ThomasM
  7. 8R. CarrM
  8. 48P. NsioM
  9. 19Ismeal KabiaM
  10. 9Eseosa SuleF
  11. 88K. PhillipsF

Substitutes

  1. 4L. DonnellyM
  2. 53Henry FieldsonD
  3. 6Louis JacksonD
  4. 37C. McEvoyM
  5. 23C. MochrieM
  6. 10SamuM
  7. 30F. TaylorM
  8. 35Grant TamoseviciusG
  9. 20J. YoungF

Coach: Craig McLeish

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.07
0.5 goalsOver93.1%Under6.9%
1.5 goalsOver74.6%Under25.4%
2.5 goalsOver49.9%Under50.1%
3.5 goalsOver27.9%Under72.1%
4.5 goalsOver13.3%Under86.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

AberdeenST Mirren
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
60%Expected goals40%
66%Overall34%

Last matches

Newest first
Aberdeen0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

ST Mirren0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Scottish Premiership table

Scottish Premiership table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
11Kilmarnock12-159
12Hibernian11-68
See full table ›

Top scorers

Scottish Premiership top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1C. DuránCeltic117
2B. NygrenCeltic116
3J. FowlerST Johnstone126
4R. NaderiRangers105
5Cláudio BragaHeart Of Midlothian115

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAberdeenST Mirren
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Aberdeen host ST Mirren in the Scottish Premiership (Regular Season - 9) at Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen, with kick-off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Aberdeen slight favourites, giving Aberdeen a 49% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 25% for ST Mirren. Our tip is: Aberdeen or draw.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 and a 53% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Scotland Scottish Premiership
Date
Saturday, 17 October 2026, 15:00 WAT
Venue
Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?

Aberdeen vs ST Mirren kicks off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Aberdeen vs ST Mirren in?

The match is in the Scotland Scottish Premiership.

Where are Aberdeen and ST Mirren in the table?

Aberdeen are 10th and ST Mirren are 8th in the Scottish Premiership.

Who will win Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?

Our prediction is Aberdeen or draw. Win probabilities: Aberdeen 49%, draw 26%, ST Mirren 25%.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?

We estimate a 53% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?

We estimate a 50% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Scottish Premiership on Sat 17 Oct

FTST Johnstone 1-1 Dundee UtdX2 ✓FTKilmarnock 3-2 MotherwellX2 ✗FTHibernian 1-2 FalkirkOver 1.5 ✓FTDundee 2-2 Rangers2 ✗

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