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Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin prediction

Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin prediction for the Liga Profesional Argentina on 23 Oct 2026: Gimnasia L.P. to win (56%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday23October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14
Gimnasia L.P.No recent gamesSarmiento Junin
2 - 0Full time · Fri 23 OctHT 1-0
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata

Match events

Gimnasia L.P.Sarmiento Junin
  1. 2'Yellow card: Julián ContreraFoul
  2. Goal: Ignacio Fernández13'
  3. 45'Yellow card: Santiago SalleFoul
  4. 45'Substitution: Jonathan HerreraOff: Gaston Gonzalez
  5. 45'Substitution: Santiago SalleOff: Ulises Adrian Gimenez
  6. 45'Substitution: Julián ContreraOff: Jhon Rentería

HT 1-0

  1. VAR: Lucas JansonGoal cancelledVAR54'
  2. 60'Yellow card: Julian MavillaFoul
  3. 61'Substitution: Jhon RenteríaOff: Pablo Daniel Magnin
  4. Substitution: Marcelo TorresOff: Franco Ramón Torres66'
  5. Yellow card: Germán ContiFoul67'
  6. Goal: Franco Ramón Torres74'
  7. Substitution: Ignacio FernándezOff: Facundo Di Biasi81'
  8. Substitution: Mateo SeoaneOff: Nicolás Barros Schelotto81'
  9. Substitution: Lucas JansonOff: Sergio Troncoso87'
  10. 87'Substitution: Mauricio MartínezOff: Elián Giménez
  11. 89'Yellow card: Elián GiménezFoul

Our verdict

1 ✓

Gimnasia L.P. to win

Bet365 1.67

56%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-0

Expected goals2.6

Win probability

1 · Gimnasia L.P.56%
Fair odds 1.79
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · Sarmiento Junin19%
Fair odds 5.26

Match statistics

  • 56%Possession44%
  • 1.02Expected goals (xG)0.44
  • 11Total shots13
  • 5Shots on target3
  • 6Shots off target7
  • 0Blocked shots3
  • 7Shots inside the box6
  • 3Corners7
  • 1Offsides2
  • 7Fouls20
  • 1Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves3
  • 451Passes341
  • 372Accurate passes261

Line-ups

Gimnasia L.P.

4-3-1-2

Starting XI

  1. 15H. CastilloG
  2. 25A. SteimbachD
  3. 13G. ContiD
  4. 21E. MartínezD
  5. 24P. SilvaD
  6. 18M. SeoaneM
  7. 5I. MiramónM
  8. 17L. JansonM
  9. 8I. FernándezM
  10. 32M. TorresF
  11. 29A. AuzmendiF

Substitutes

  1. 33P. AguiarM
  2. 10N. SchelottoM
  3. 39F. Di BiasiM
  4. 4R. GiampaoliD
  5. 23N. InsfránG
  6. 16A. MaxM
  7. 22M. MellusoD
  8. 7M. PanaroF
  9. 26F. TorresF
  10. 34Sergio TroncosoM
  11. 9M. ZalazarF
  12. 35J. CortazzoD

Coach: A. Pereyra

Sarmiento Junin

3-4-1-2

Starting XI

  1. 12T. AyalaG
  2. 44R. OrihuelaD
  3. 2J. InsaurraldeD
  4. 3L. SuárezD
  5. 8S. SalleM
  6. 16Mauricio Leonel MartínezM
  7. 15C. ZabalaM
  8. 21J. MavillaM
  9. 19J. ContreraM
  10. 27J. MarabelF
  11. 24J. HerreraF

Substitutes

  1. 26Y. ArismendiM
  2. 10Jhon RenteríaM
  3. 77N. PasquiniD
  4. 7P. MagnínF
  5. 29T. SantamaríaD
  6. 1I. ArboledaG
  7. 6G. ArturiaD
  8. 9D. ChurínF
  9. 5M. GarcíaM
  10. 23E. GiménezM
  11. 20U. GiménezD
  12. 11G. GonzálezF

Coach: Facundo Sava

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.69 – 0.88
0.5 goalsOver92.3%Under7.7%
1.5 goalsOver72.7%Under27.3%
2.5 goalsOver47.4%Under52.6%
3.5 goalsOver25.7%Under74.3%
4.5 goalsOver11.8%Under88.2%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Gimnasia L.P.Sarmiento Junin
0%Form100%
0%Attack100%
83%Defence17%
50%Head to head50%
66%Expected goals34%
75%Overall25%

Last matches

Newest first
Gimnasia L.P.0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Sarmiento Junin0W 2D 0L · last 2
DSarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central19 Oct 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina1-1DSarmiento Junin vs River Plate14 Oct 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina1-1

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
1Independ. Rivadavia16+1434
2Boca Juniors16+1330
2River Plate16+1029
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
3Argentinos JRS16+429
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
4Rosario Central16+428
5Independiente16+424
5Belgrano Cordoba16+426
6Lanus16+324
6Gimnasia L.P.16026
7San Lorenzo16022
7Huracan16+422
8Union Santa Fe16+421
8Racing Club16+221
9Instituto Cordoba16021
9Barracas Central16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
10Tigre16+320
11Gimnasia M.16-819
11Sarmiento Junin16-719
12Platense16-516
12Banfield16-218
13Central Cordoba de Santiago16-1016
13Atletico Tucuman16-514
14Newells Old Boys16-1215
14Aldosivi16-138
15Deportivo Riestra16-711
15Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto16-195
See full table ›

Top scorers

Liga Profesional Argentina top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1C. TarragonaUnion Santa Fe3115
2A. MódicaGimnasia M.2614
3J. MarabelSarmiento Junin3014
4J. CaicedoHuracan2814
5R. MartínezVelez Sarsfield2913

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatGimnasia L.P.Sarmiento Junin
Played02
Wins00
Draws02
Losses00
Goals for (avg)01
Goals against (avg)01
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 2 games went over the line

Over 1.50/02/2
Over 2.50/00/2
Over 3.50/00/2
BTTS – yes0/02/2

Match preview

Gimnasia L.P. host Sarmiento Junin in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Clausura - 14) at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata, with kick-off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 22:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Gimnasia L.P. favourites, giving Gimnasia L.P. a 56% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 19% for Sarmiento Junin. Our tip is: Gimnasia L.P. to win.

Sarmiento Junin have taken 2 points from their last 2 games (0W 2D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina
Date
Friday, 23 October 2026, 22:00 WAT
Venue
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?

Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin kicks off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 22:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin in?

The match is in the Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina.

Where are Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin in the table?

Gimnasia L.P. are 6th and Sarmiento Junin are 11th in the Liga Profesional Argentina.

Who will win Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?

Our prediction is Gimnasia L.P. to win. Win probabilities: Gimnasia L.P. 56%, draw 25%, Sarmiento Junin 19%.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?

We estimate a 48% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is No.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?

We estimate a 48% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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