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Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate prediction

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate prediction for the Liga Profesional Argentina on 14 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (71%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Wednesday14October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11
Sarmiento JuninNo recent gamesRiver PlateNo recent games
1 - 1Full time · Wed 14 OctHT 1-0
Estadio Eva Peron, Junin

Match events

Sarmiento JuninRiver Plate
  1. Goal: Julián ContreraAssist: Junior Marabel15'

HT 1-0

  1. 59'VARVAR: Fausto VeraGoal cancelled
  2. Yellow card: Pablo Daniel MagninDissent61'
  3. Yellow card: Julián ContreraFoul69'
  4. Substitution: Julian MavillaOff: Elián Giménez69'
  5. Substitution: Jonathan HerreraOff: Jhon Rentería69'
  6. 70'Yellow card: Tobías AndradaFoul
  7. 71'Goal: Gonzalo MontielAssist: Thiago Almada
  8. Substitution: Julián ContreraOff: Gaston Gonzalez72'
  9. 72'Substitution: Tomás Ezequiel GalvánOff: Lautaro Pereyra
  10. 73'Substitution: Marcos AcuñaOff: Francisco Ortega
  11. 82'Yellow card: Fausto VeraFoul
  12. 84'Substitution: Sebastián DriussiOff: Lucas Beltran
  13. Yellow card: Manuel GarcíaFoul89'
  14. Substitution: Santiago SalleOff: Agustín Nadruz90+3'
  15. Substitution: Junior MarabelOff: Pablo Daniel Magnin90+3'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.33

71%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-1

Expected goals2.5

Win probability

1 · Sarmiento Junin18%
Fair odds 5.56
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · River Plate57%
Fair odds 1.75

Match statistics

  • 27%Possession73%
  • 1.28Expected goals (xG)1.78
  • 11Total shots22
  • 4Shots on target8
  • 3Shots off target7
  • 4Blocked shots7
  • 5Shots inside the box14
  • 5Corners9
  • 0Offsides1
  • 20Fouls8
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 7Goalkeeper saves3
  • 185Passes514
  • 95Accurate passes434

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 12T. AyalaG
  2. 8S. SalleD
  3. 44R. OrihuelaD
  4. 2J. InsaurraldeD
  5. 3L. SuárezD
  6. 19J. ContreraM
  7. 5M. GarcíaM
  8. 15C. ZabalaM
  9. 10Jhon RenteríaF
  10. 27J. MarabelF
  11. 21J. MavillaF

Substitutes

  1. 33G. DíazM
  2. 35F. AlaggiaM
  3. 1I. ArboledaG
  4. 6G. ArturiaD
  5. 23E. GiménezM
  6. 39Joel GodoyD
  7. 11G. GonzálezF
  8. 24J. HerreraF
  9. 7P. MagnínF
  10. 17A. NadruzM
  11. 77N. PasquiniD
  12. 29T. SantamaríaD

Coach: Facundo Sava

River Plate

4-1-3-2

Starting XI

  1. 41S. BeltránG
  2. 29G. MontielD
  3. 28L. MartínezD
  4. 30N. OtamendiD
  5. 21M. AcuñaD
  6. 15F. VeraM
  7. 50T. AndradaM
  8. 23T. AlmadaM
  9. 26T. GalvánM
  10. 10Á. CorreaF
  11. 9S. DriussiF

Substitutes

  1. 18L. BeltránM
  2. 8M. ArambarriM
  3. 19R. BorréF
  4. 33E. CenturiónG
  5. 27Santiago Joaquín EspíndolaM
  6. 20G. GonzálezD
  7. 24J. MezaM
  8. 6A. MorenoM
  9. 3F. OrtegaD
  10. 25L. PereyraF
  11. 2T. PalacioD
  12. 13L. RiveroD
  13. 31F. GonzálezD

Coach: Leonardo Ponzio

Betting markets

Expected goals 0.82 – 1.65
0.5 goalsOver91.5%Under8.5%
1.5 goalsOver70.6%Under29.4%
2.5 goalsOver44.8%Under55.2%
3.5 goalsOver23.6%Under76.4%
4.5 goalsOver10.5%Under89.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Sarmiento JuninRiver Plate
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
33%Expected goals67%
24%Overall76%

Last matches

Newest first
Sarmiento Junin0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

River Plate0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
1Independ. Rivadavia16+1434
2Boca Juniors16+1330
2River Plate16+1029
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
3Argentinos JRS16+429
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
4Rosario Central16+428
5Independiente16+424
5Belgrano Cordoba16+426
6Lanus16+324
6Gimnasia L.P.16026
7San Lorenzo16022
7Huracan16+422
8Union Santa Fe16+421
8Racing Club16+221
9Instituto Cordoba16021
9Barracas Central16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
10Tigre16+320
11Gimnasia M.16-819
11Sarmiento Junin16-719
12Platense16-516
12Banfield16-218
13Central Cordoba de Santiago16-1016
13Atletico Tucuman16-514
14Newells Old Boys16-1215
14Aldosivi16-138
15Deportivo Riestra16-711
15Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto16-195
See full table ›

Top scorers

Liga Profesional Argentina top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1C. TarragonaUnion Santa Fe3215
2A. MódicaGimnasia M.2714
3J. MarabelSarmiento Junin3114
4J. CaicedoHuracan2814
5R. MartínezVelez Sarsfield3013

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatSarmiento JuninRiver Plate
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Sarmiento Junin host River Plate in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Clausura - 11) at Estadio Eva Peron, Junin, with kick-off on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 23:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes River Plate favourites, giving Sarmiento Junin a 18% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 57% for River Plate. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina
Date
Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 23:00 WAT
Venue
Estadio Eva Peron, Junin

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate kicks off on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 23:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate in?

The match is in the Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina.

Where are Sarmiento Junin and River Plate in the table?

Sarmiento Junin are 11th and River Plate are 2nd in the Liga Profesional Argentina.

Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Sarmiento Junin 18%, draw 25%, River Plate 57%.

Will both teams score in Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?

We estimate a 46% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is No.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?

We estimate a 45% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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