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Lens vs Paris FC prediction

Lens vs Paris FC prediction for the Ligue 1 on 24 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (79%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday24October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8
LensParis FC
2 - 1Full time · Sat 24 OctHT 0-1
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Match events

LensParis FC
  1. VAR: Matthieu UdolPenalty cancelledVAR19'
  2. 28'Yellow card: Moustapha MbowFoul
  3. 29'Yellow card: Pierre Lees MelouHandball
  4. 45'Substitution: Luca KoleoshoOff: Emmanuel Mbemba
  5. 45+2'Goal: Luca KoleoshoAssist: Lassine Sinayoko

HT 0-1

  1. VAR: Jean-Clair TodiboRed card cancelledVAR51'
  2. Yellow card: Florian ThauvinFoul51'
  3. Substitution: Jean-Clair TodiboOff: Kyllian Antonio61'
  4. Substitution: Franjo IvanovicOff: Thorgan Hazard61'
  5. Goal: Florian ThauvinAssist: Thorgan Hazard63'
  6. 67'Substitution: Adama CamaraOff: Moses Simon
  7. 67'Substitution: Pablo PagisOff: Rudy Matondo
  8. Substitution: Amadou HaidaraOff: Yassine Titraoui71'
  9. Yellow card: Samson BaidooFoul74'
  10. 76'Substitution: Ilan KebbalOff: Patrick Zabi
  11. 81'Substitution: Rudy MatondoOff: Thibault De Smet
  12. Goal: Thorgan HazardAssist: Florian Thauvin83'
  13. Substitution: Michał SkóraśOff: Saud Abdulhamid85'
  14. Substitution: Florian SotocaOff: Junior Kadile85'
  15. Yellow card: Michał SkóraśDissent89'
  16. 90+2'Yellow card: OtavioFoul
  17. Yellow card: Y. CahuzacDissent90+5'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

79%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-1

Expected goals2.9

Win probability

1 · Lens42%
Fair odds 2.38
X · Draw26%
Fair odds 3.85
2 · Paris FC32%
Fair odds 3.13

Match statistics

  • 56%Possession44%
  • 0.93Expected goals (xG)0.43
  • 9Total shots4
  • 3Shots on target1
  • 6Shots off target2
  • 0Blocked shots1
  • 6Shots inside the box4
  • 6Corners1
  • 0Offsides1
  • 17Fouls17
  • 3Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 0Goalkeeper saves2
  • 554Passes455
  • 478Accurate passes369

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1

Starting XI

  1. 40R. RisserG
  2. 2R. AguilarD
  3. 6S. BaidooD
  4. 20J. TodiboD
  5. 23Saud AbdulhamidM
  6. 27M. CuisanceM
  7. 21A. HaidaraM
  8. 14M. UdolM
  9. 10F. ThauvinM
  10. 7F. SotocaM
  11. 29F. IvanovićF

Substitutes

  1. 9T. HazardM
  2. 16M. GorgelinG
  3. 38M. SoaresM
  4. 8Y. TitraouiM
  5. 4N. ČelikD
  6. 28J. KadileF
  7. 32K. AntonioD
  8. 5A. BulatovićM
  9. 22M. SkóraśF

Coach: Yannick Cahuzac

Paris FC

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 16O. NkambadioG
  2. 17A. CamaraD
  3. 5M. MbowD
  4. 42D. CoppolaD
  5. 6OtávioD
  6. 20M. LopezM
  7. 33P. Lees-MelouM
  8. 10I. KebbalM
  9. 7P. PagisM
  10. 15L. KoleoshoM
  11. 9L. SinayokoF

Substitutes

  1. 8E. ZabiM
  2. 28T. De SmetD
  3. 11J. KrassoF
  4. 3E. MbembaD
  5. 50Ibrahim MeïtéG
  6. 23R. MatondoM
  7. 27M. SimonF
  8. 18O. SissokoF
  9. 25Y. KoréD

Coach: L. Rosenior

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.35
0.5 goalsOver94.6%Under5.4%
1.5 goalsOver78.9%Under21.1%
2.5 goalsOver55.9%Under44.1%
3.5 goalsOver33.5%Under66.5%
4.5 goalsOver17.1%Under82.9%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

LensParis FC
50%Form50%
20%Attack80%
60%Defence40%
50%Head to head50%
54%Expected goals46%
57%Overall43%

Last matches

Newest first
Lens1W 0D 2L · last 3
LClub Brugge KV vs Lens21 Oct 2026 · Champions League3-0WEstac Troyes vs Lens17 Oct 2026 · Ligue 11-3LLens vs Sporting CP13 Oct 2026 · Champions League0-2
Paris FC1W 0D 0L · last 1
WParis FC vs Rennes18 Oct 2026 · Ligue 14-3

Ligue 1 table

Ligue 1 table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
11Toulouse9-110
12Strasbourg9-210
13Auxerre9-1010
14Stade Brestois 298+29
15Angers9-88
16Estac Troyes9-98
17Le Mans9-77
18Le Havre9-112
See full table ›

Top scorers

Ligue 1 top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1L. SinayokoParis FC98
2E. LepaulRennes77
3C. ArcherAuxerre76
4A. GouiriMarseille96
5E. WahiNice86

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatLensParis FC
Played31
Wins11
Draws00
Losses20
Goals for (avg)14
Goals against (avg)23
Clean sheets00
Failed to score20
Best win streak11

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 3 games went over the line

Over 1.53/31/1
Over 2.52/31/1
Over 3.51/31/1
BTTS – yes1/31/1

Match preview

Lens host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 8) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, with kick-off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 19:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Lens slight favourites, giving Lens a 42% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 32% for Paris FC. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Lens have taken 3 points from their last 3 games (1W 0D 2L). Paris FC have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 and a 59% chance that both teams score.

Competition
France Ligue 1
Date
Saturday, 24 October 2026, 19:45 WAT
Venue
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Lens vs Paris FC?

Lens vs Paris FC kicks off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Lens vs Paris FC in?

The match is in the France Ligue 1.

Where are Lens and Paris FC in the table?

Lens are 9th and Paris FC are 4th in the Ligue 1.

Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Lens 42%, draw 26%, Paris FC 32%.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Paris FC?

We estimate a 59% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens vs Paris FC?

We estimate a 56% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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