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Gremio vs Cruzeiro prediction

Gremio vs Cruzeiro prediction for the Brasileiro Série A on 18 Oct 2026: Cruzeiro or draw (64%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday18October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Brasileiro Série A · Regular Season - 31
GremioNo recent gamesCruzeiroNo recent games
2 - 4Full time · Sun 18 OctHT 2-1
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre

Match events

GremioCruzeiro
  1. Penalty goal: Carlos Vinícius (pen)17'
  2. 23'Goal: Kaio JorgeAssist: Matheus Pereira
  3. Substitution: Danilo Barbosa da SilvaOff: Erick Noriega36'
  4. Goal: Cristian Pavón41'

HT 2-1

  1. 48'Goal: Kaio Jorge
  2. 61'Goal: Kaio JorgeAssist: William
  3. Substitution: Filip KrovinovićOff: Martin Braithwaite66'
  4. 66'Substitution: Matheus HenriqueOff: Zé Lucas
  5. 67'Yellow card: João MarceloFoul
  6. 71'Yellow card: Matheus PereiraDissent
  7. Yellow card: Walter KannemannFoul73'
  8. Red card: Walter KannemannAbusive Language73'
  9. 76'Yellow card: Keny arroyoFoul
  10. 79'Substitution: Keny arroyoOff: Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
  11. 80'Goal: João MarceloAssist: Gerson
  12. Substitution: Cristian PavónOff: Tetê90'
  13. Substitution: Francis AmuzuOff: José Enamorado90'
  14. 90+2'Substitution: Bruno RodriguesOff: Gerson
  15. 90+2'Substitution: Luciano RodríguezOff: Kaio Jorge
  16. 90+2'Substitution: Fabrício BrunoOff: João Marcelo

Our verdict

X2 ✓

Cruzeiro or draw

Bet365 1.40

64%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-4

Expected goals2.8

Win probability

1 · Gremio36%
Fair odds 2.78
X · Draw27%
Fair odds 3.70
2 · Cruzeiro37%
Fair odds 2.70

Match statistics

  • 40%Possession60%
  • 2.06Expected goals (xG)1.52
  • 17Total shots13
  • 6Shots on target6
  • 6Shots off target3
  • 5Blocked shots4
  • 9Shots inside the box9
  • 8Corners8
  • 0Offsides1
  • 19Fouls16
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 1Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves4
  • 330Passes509
  • 258Accurate passes434

Line-ups

Gremio

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1WevertonG
  2. 27Diego CaitoD
  3. 6Gustavo MartinsD
  4. 4W. KannemannD
  5. 23MarlonD
  6. 20M. VillasantiM
  7. 15Danilo BarbosaM
  8. 7C. PavónM
  9. 10F. KrovinovićM
  10. 9F. AmuzuM
  11. 95Carlos ViníciusF

Substitutes

  1. 3Wagner LeonardoD
  2. 11TetêF
  3. 22M. BraithwaiteF
  4. 54Pedro GabrielD
  5. 99J. EnamoradoF
  6. 12Gabriel GrandoG
  7. 18João PedroD
  8. 17DodiM
  9. 8E. NoriegaM
  10. 14Marcos RochaD
  11. 38Caio PaulistaD
  12. 2F. BalbuenaD

Coach: Renato Gaúcho

Cruzeiro

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
  2. 12WilliamD
  3. 43João MarceloD
  4. 34JonathanD
  5. 25L. VillalbaD
  6. 5Zé LucasM
  7. 29L. RomeroM
  8. 99K. ArroyoM
  9. 10Matheus PereiraM
  10. 8GersonM
  11. 19Kaio JorgeF

Substitutes

  1. 1CássioG
  2. 9Bruno RodriguesF
  3. 15Fabrício BrunoD
  4. 23FágnerD
  5. 2Kauã MoraesD
  6. 16Lucas SilvaM
  7. 11MarquinhosF
  8. 7Matheus HenriqueM
  9. 97L. RodríguezF
  10. 27G. RojasD
  11. 6M. ViñaD
  12. 20Wesley GassovaF

Coach: Artur Jorge

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.40
0.5 goalsOver93.7%Under6.3%
1.5 goalsOver76.4%Under23.6%
2.5 goalsOver52.3%Under47.7%
3.5 goalsOver30.1%Under69.9%
4.5 goalsOver14.8%Under85.2%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

GremioCruzeiro
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
49%Expected goals51%
49%Overall51%

Last matches

Newest first
Gremio0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Cruzeiro0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Brasileiro Série A table

Brasileiro Série A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
11Coritiba33-1042
12Botafogo33-839
13Vasco DA Gama32-938
14Vitoria33-1338
15Gremio33-737
16Mirassol33-1037
17Corinthians33-636
18Internacional33-535
19Remo33-1529
20Chapecoense-sc32-3421
See full table ›

Top scorers

Brasileiro Série A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1K. ViverosAtletico Paranaense3121
2PedroFlamengo3318
3Gabriel BarbosaSantos2515
4Kaio JorgeCruzeiro2612
5Samuel LinoFlamengo3211

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatGremioCruzeiro
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Gremio host Cruzeiro in the Brasileiro Série A (Regular Season - 31) at Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, with kick-off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Cruzeiro narrow favourites, giving Gremio a 36% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 37% for Cruzeiro. Our tip is: Cruzeiro or draw.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 52% chance of over 2.5 and a 57% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Brazil Brasileiro Série A
Date
Sunday, 18 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Gremio vs Cruzeiro?

Gremio vs Cruzeiro kicks off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Gremio vs Cruzeiro in?

The match is in the Brazil Brasileiro Série A.

Where are Gremio and Cruzeiro in the table?

Gremio are 15th and Cruzeiro are 3rd in the Brasileiro Série A.

Who will win Gremio vs Cruzeiro?

Our prediction is Cruzeiro or draw. Win probabilities: Gremio 36%, draw 27%, Cruzeiro 37%.

Will both teams score in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?

We estimate a 57% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?

We estimate a 52% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Brasileiro Série A on Sun 18 Oct

FTFluminense 1-2 SantosOver 1.5 ✓FTBahia 0-3 FlamengoX2 ✓

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