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Fluminense vs Santos prediction

Fluminense vs Santos prediction for the Brasileiro Série A on 18 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (75%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday18October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Brasileiro Série A · Regular Season - 31
FluminenseNo recent gamesSantosNo recent games
1 - 2Full time · Sun 18 OctHT 1-0
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro

Match events

FluminenseSantos
  1. Goal: Rodrigo CastilloAssist: Igor Rabello4'
  2. 25'Yellow card: Álvaro BarrealFoul
  3. Yellow card: Agustín CanobbioFoul31'

HT 1-0

  1. 49'Goal: Gabriel BarbosaAssist: Rodinei
  2. 54'Goal: Philippe CoutinhoAssist: Gabriel Bontempo
  3. Substitution: Rodrigo CastilloOff: Hulk57'
  4. Substitution: Yeferson SoteldoOff: Jefferson David Savarino Quintero57'
  5. Substitution: Luciano AcostaOff: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima57'
  6. Substitution: Agustín CanobbioOff: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado57'
  7. 72'Substitution: RonyOff: Philippe Coutinho
  8. 72'Substitution: Christian OlivaOff: Everton
  9. Substitution: Gustavo Nonato SantanaOff: Kevin Serna76'
  10. 83'Substitution: João Alencar Santos Paes da CostaOff: Lucas Veríssimo
  11. 87'Substitution: Álvaro BarrealOff: Rafael Gonzaga
  12. 87'Substitution: Neymar da Silva Santos JúniorOff: Benjamín Rollheiser

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.30

75%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-2

Expected goals2.7

Win probability

1 · Fluminense43%
Fair odds 2.33
X · Draw27%
Fair odds 3.70
2 · Santos30%
Fair odds 3.33

Match statistics

  • 46%Possession54%
  • 0.98Expected goals (xG)2.10
  • 8Total shots16
  • 2Shots on target5
  • 3Shots off target5
  • 3Blocked shots6
  • 5Shots inside the box11
  • 4Corners5
  • 18Fouls18
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves1
  • 518Passes523
  • 450Accurate passes465

Line-ups

Fluminense

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1FábioG
  2. 2Samuel XavierD
  3. 4IgnacioD
  4. 21Igor RabelloD
  5. 6RenêD
  6. 35HérculesM
  7. 16NonatoM
  8. 17A. CanobbioM
  9. 32L. AcostaM
  10. 30Y. SoteldoM
  11. 19R. CastilloF

Substitutes

  1. 23GugaD
  2. 22J. FreytesD
  3. 7HulkF
  4. 27MarceloG
  5. 29J. MillánD
  6. 94OtávioM
  7. 10PH GansoM
  8. 11J. SavarinoF
  9. 90K. SernaF
  10. 3Thiago SilvaD
  11. 34Wesley NataF
  12. 41Ruan Sales OliveiraM

Coach: Marcão

Santos

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1DiógenesG
  2. 23RodineiD
  3. 4Lucas VeríssimoD
  4. 14Luan PeresD
  5. 22Á. BarrealD
  6. 8Gabriel BontempoM
  7. 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
  8. 11Philippe CoutinhoM
  9. 10NeymarM
  10. 7EvertonM
  11. 9Gabriel BarbosaF

Substitutes

  1. 18Igor ViniciusD
  2. 26João Paulo AnaniasD
  3. 34João PauloG
  4. 5João SchmidtM
  5. 30M. TercerosM
  6. 28C. OlivaM
  7. 38Rafael GonzagaD
  8. 32B. RollheiserF
  9. 33RonyF
  10. 16ThacianoM
  11. 25Gabriel MeninoM
  12. 42João AlencarD

Coach: Cuca

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20
0.5 goalsOver93.2%Under6.8%
1.5 goalsOver75.0%Under25.0%
2.5 goalsOver50.4%Under49.6%
3.5 goalsOver28.4%Under71.6%
4.5 goalsOver13.6%Under86.4%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

FluminenseSantos
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
55%Expected goals45%
59%Overall41%

Last matches

Newest first
Fluminense0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Santos0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Brasileiro Série A table

Brasileiro Série A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
11Coritiba33-1042
12Botafogo33-839
13Vasco DA Gama32-938
14Vitoria33-1338
15Gremio33-737
16Mirassol33-1037
17Corinthians33-636
18Internacional33-535
19Remo33-1529
20Chapecoense-sc32-3421
See full table ›

Top scorers

Brasileiro Série A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1K. ViverosAtletico Paranaense3121
2PedroFlamengo3318
3Gabriel BarbosaSantos2515
4Kaio JorgeCruzeiro2612
5Samuel LinoFlamengo3211

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatFluminenseSantos
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Fluminense host Santos in the Brasileiro Série A (Regular Season - 31) at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, with kick-off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Fluminense slight favourites, giving Fluminense a 43% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 30% for Santos. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 and a 55% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Brazil Brasileiro Série A
Date
Sunday, 18 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Fluminense vs Santos?

Fluminense vs Santos kicks off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Fluminense vs Santos in?

The match is in the Brazil Brasileiro Série A.

Where are Fluminense and Santos in the table?

Fluminense are 4th and Santos are 8th in the Brasileiro Série A.

Who will win Fluminense vs Santos?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Fluminense 43%, draw 27%, Santos 30%.

Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Santos?

We estimate a 55% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fluminense vs Santos?

We estimate a 50% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Brasileiro Série A on Sun 18 Oct

FTGremio 2-4 CruzeiroX2 ✓FTBahia 0-3 FlamengoX2 ✓

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