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Castellón vs Sporting Gijon prediction

Castellón vs Sporting Gijon prediction for the Segunda División on 25 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (77%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 28/42 correct(67%)
Segunda División · Regular Season - 11
CastellónNo recent gamesSporting Gijon
4 - 0Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 2-0
Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon

Match events

CastellónSporting Gijon
  1. Goal: Adam JakobsenAssist: Matías Orozco3'
  2. 7'Yellow card: Hugo GuillamónFoul
  3. Goal: Israel Suero FernándezAssist: Matías Orozco26'
  4. Yellow card: Matías OrozcoFoul35'

HT 2-0

  1. Goal: Adam JakobsenAssist: Matías Orozco52'
  2. 58'Substitution: Juan OteroOff: Alejo Sarco
  3. 58'Substitution: Enol Prendes OrtizOff: Gaspar Campos
  4. Substitution: Íñigo CórdobaOff: Lucas Alcázar66'
  5. Substitution: Matías OrozcoOff: Jari Vlak67'
  6. 68'Yellow card: Guillermo RosasDissent
  7. 69'Substitution: Mamadou LoumOff: Hugo Guillamón
  8. Substitution: Israel Suero FernándezOff: antonio gala74'
  9. Substitution: Ilias KostisOff: Alberto Jiménez74'
  10. 78'Substitution: Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezOff: Pablo García
  11. 78'Substitution: Andres CuencaOff: Diego Sánchez
  12. VAR: antonio galaPenalty cancelledVAR79'
  13. Substitution: Adam JakobsenOff: Álvaro García Arana82'
  14. Goal: Álvaro García AranaAssist: Alvaro Martin87'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.20

77%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-0

Expected goals2.8

Win probability

1 · Castellón61%
Fair odds 1.64
X · Draw23%
Fair odds 4.35
2 · Sporting Gijon16%
Fair odds 6.25

Match statistics

  • 47%Possession53%
  • 1.92Expected goals (xG)0.63
  • 14Total shots8
  • 6Shots on target3
  • 5Shots off target2
  • 3Blocked shots3
  • 6Shots inside the box5
  • 2Corners3
  • 1Offsides5
  • 11Fouls11
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves2
  • 491Passes551
  • 428Accurate passes470

Line-ups

Castellón

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 13R. MatthysG
  2. 22J. MellotD
  3. 5Alberto JiménezD
  4. 4A. SienraD
  5. 14Iñigo CórdobaD
  6. 18Pablo SantiagoM
  7. 6M. OrozcoM
  8. 8BarriM
  9. 21Álvaro MartínM
  10. 10Israel SueroF
  11. 16A. JakobsenF

Substitutes

  1. 19Hamza BellariF
  2. 12Lucas AlcázarD
  3. 11F. CeccheriniD
  4. 27A. GalaM
  5. 23Varo GarcíaF
  6. 15I. KostisD
  7. 24D. Muale NzanzaF
  8. 26Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira RêgoF
  9. 1A. SaipiG
  10. 7Raúl SánchezF
  11. 20Martín CondeD
  12. 25J. VlakM

Coach: Pablo Hernández

Sporting Gijon

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 1Rubén YáñezG
  2. 2Guille RosasD
  3. 4E. GularteD
  4. 23Jorge SáenzD
  5. 44Andrés CuencaD
  6. 7Gaspar CamposM
  7. 22Hugo GuillamónM
  8. 14Álex CorrederaM
  9. 3Pablo GarcíaM
  10. 10César GelabertF
  11. 19J. OteroF

Substitutes

  1. 24Aimar DuñabeitiaD
  2. 15Pablo VázquezD
  3. 16A. SarcoF
  4. 5Diego SánchezD
  5. 27Enol PrendesF
  6. 6Nacho MartínM
  7. 26Iker MartínezD
  8. 21M. LoumM
  9. 35C. FerreresM
  10. 13AranaG
  11. 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezM
  12. 36B. RubioM

Coach: N. Larcamón

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.87
0.5 goalsOver93.6%Under6.4%
1.5 goalsOver76.0%Under24.0%
2.5 goalsOver51.9%Under48.1%
3.5 goalsOver29.7%Under70.3%
4.5 goalsOver14.5%Under85.5%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

CastellónSporting Gijon
0%Form100%
0%Attack100%
83%Defence17%
50%Head to head50%
68%Expected goals32%
79%Overall21%

Last matches

Newest first
Castellón0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Sporting Gijon1W 0D 0L · last 1
WSporting Gijon vs Albacete17 Oct 2026 · Segunda División2-1

Segunda División table

Segunda División table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Castellón11+1826
2Almeria11+1325
3Eibar11+722
4Girona11+1221
5Granada CF11+420
6Burgos11+420
7Mallorca11+719
8Sporting Gijon11-219
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell11+217
11Cordoba11-315
12Tenerife11-214
13Eldense11-214
14Las Palmas11-514
15Valladolid11012
16Celta de Vigo II11-512
17Leganes11-912
18Cadiz11010
19FC Andorra11-510
20Real Sociedad II11-88
21AD Ceuta FC11-155
22Albacete11-144
See full table ›

Top scorers

Segunda División top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1Miguel de la FuenteAlmeria117
2Enric GallegoTenerife107
3FuentesMallorca116
4A. MarinCelta de Vigo II116
5Jordi CanoFC Andorra95

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatCastellónSporting Gijon
Played01
Wins01
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)02
Goals against (avg)01
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak01

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.50/01/1
Over 2.50/01/1
Over 3.50/00/1
BTTS – yes0/01/1

Match preview

Castellón host Sporting Gijon in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 11) at Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 18:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Castellón favourites, giving Castellón a 61% chance of winning, 23% for the draw and 16% for Sporting Gijon. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

Sporting Gijon have taken 3 points from their last 1 games (1W 0D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 52% chance of over 2.5 and a 50% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Spain Segunda División
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 18:30 WAT
Venue
Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Castellón vs Sporting Gijon?

Castellón vs Sporting Gijon kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 18:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Castellón vs Sporting Gijon in?

The match is in the Spain Segunda División.

Where are Castellón and Sporting Gijon in the table?

Castellón are 1st and Sporting Gijon are 8th in the Segunda División.

Who will win Castellón vs Sporting Gijon?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: Castellón 61%, draw 23%, Sporting Gijon 16%.

Will both teams score in Castellón vs Sporting Gijon?

We estimate a 50% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Castellón vs Sporting Gijon?

We estimate a 52% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Segunda División on Sun 25 Oct

FTSabadell 1-1 Tenerife1X ✓FTCadiz 3-1 AD Ceuta FC1X ✓FTAlbacete 2-0 EldenseOver 1.5 ✓

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