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Alaves vs Malaga prediction

Alaves vs Malaga prediction for the La Liga on 23 Oct 2026: Alaves to win (57%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday23October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
La Liga · Regular Season - 10
AlavesMalaga
1 - 1Full time · Fri 23 OctHT 0-1
Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz

Match events

AlavesMalaga
  1. Yellow card: Lucas BoyéFoul39'
  2. 44'Goal: Adrian NinoAssist: Ramón Enríquez
  3. Substitution: Hugo Novoa RamosOff: Carles Aleñá45'
  4. 45'VARVAR: Adrian NinoGoal confirmed

HT 0-1

  1. Substitution: Abderrahmane RebbachOff: Denis Suárez55'
  2. Substitution: Nicolas ValentiniOff: Youssef Enriquez55'
  3. Substitution: Mariano DíazOff: Toni Martínez66'
  4. Yellow card: Nahuel TenagliaDissent67'
  5. 68'Substitution: Adam AznouOff: José Salinas
  6. 68'Substitution: Rafael Rodríguez RuizOff: Ramón Enríquez
  7. Substitution: Aitor MañasOff: Antonio Blanco75'
  8. 77'Substitution: Adrian NinoOff: Carlos Ruiz Rubio
  9. 77'Substitution: Carlos PugaOff: Juan Berrocal
  10. 84'Yellow card: Carlos DotorFoul
  11. 87'Substitution: Jens CajusteOff: Carlos Dotor
  12. Goal: Aitor Mañas89'
  13. 90+2'Yellow card: Juan Francisco Funes ArjonaDissent

Our verdict

1 ✗

Alaves to win

Bet365 1.73

57%

✗ This tip lost · final score 1-1

Expected goals2.5

Win probability

1 · Alaves57%
Fair odds 1.75
X · Draw25%
Fair odds 4.00
2 · Malaga18%
Fair odds 5.56

Match statistics

  • 63%Possession37%
  • 1.88Expected goals (xG)0.63
  • 18Total shots6
  • 4Shots on target3
  • 8Shots off target3
  • 6Blocked shots0
  • 12Shots inside the box4
  • 7Corners2
  • 0Offsides2
  • 14Fouls12
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves3
  • 426Passes464
  • 368Accurate passes385

Line-ups

Alaves

5-3-2

Starting XI

  1. 1SiveraG
  2. 7Angel PérezD
  3. 14N. TenagliaD
  4. 16V. KoskiD
  5. 2N. ValentiniD
  6. 21A. RebbachD
  7. 19Pablo IbáñezM
  8. 8Antonio BlancoM
  9. 10Carles AleñáM
  10. 15L. BoyéF
  11. 9M. DíazF

Substitutes

  1. 23C. BenavídezM
  2. 4Denis SuárezM
  3. 22Miguel RodríguezF
  4. 13A. GiménezG
  5. 27X. OlaizD
  6. 12Hugo NovoaF
  7. 33Rubén MonteroG
  8. 20Aitor MañasF
  9. 11Toni MartínezF
  10. 3YusiD
  11. 24Selu DialloM
  12. 17JonnyD

Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Malaga

4-1-4-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Alfonso HerreroG
  2. 3PugaD
  3. 15Ángel RecioD
  4. 4Einar GalileaD
  5. 31RafitaD
  6. 6Ramón EnríquezM
  7. 10David LarrubiaM
  8. 8Carlos DotorM
  9. 22Dani LorenzoM
  10. 39Adam Aznou Ben CheikhM
  11. 21Adrián Niño HerediaF

Substitutes

  1. 2J. CajusteM
  2. 23Izan MerinoM
  3. 20Fernando CaleroD
  4. 9ChupeF
  5. 17Eneko JauregiF
  6. 13Carlos LópezG
  7. 5Álex PastorD
  8. 14Rafa RodríguezM
  9. 12José SalinasD
  10. 7H. AbaidaF
  11. 32J. FernandezF
  12. 25Juan BerrocalD

Coach: Funes

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.83
0.5 goalsOver91.8%Under8.2%
1.5 goalsOver71.3%Under28.7%
2.5 goalsOver45.6%Under54.4%
3.5 goalsOver24.2%Under75.8%
4.5 goalsOver10.9%Under89.1%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

AlavesMalaga
50%Form50%
33%Attack67%
71%Defence29%
50%Head to head50%
67%Expected goals33%
76%Overall24%

Last matches

Newest first
Alaves0W 0D 1L · last 1
LCelta Vigo vs Alaves18 Oct 2026 · La Liga2-1
Malaga0W 0D 1L · last 1
LMalaga vs Real Sociedad18 Oct 2026 · La Liga2-5

La Liga table

La Liga table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
11Rayo Vallecano10-512
12Getafe11-812
13Deportivo La Coruna10011
14Espanyol11-111
15Osasuna10-1011
16Racing Santander11-1411
17Elche11-410
18Levante11-510
19Valencia11-99
20Malaga11-135
See full table ›

Top scorers

La Liga top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1RaphinhaBarcelona1015
2Kylian MbappéReal Madrid1112
3Lamine YamalBarcelona1110
4M. ZabiriRacing Santander118
5Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano117

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAlavesMalaga
Played11
Wins00
Draws00
Losses11
Goals for (avg)12
Goals against (avg)25
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.51/11/1
Over 2.51/11/1
Over 3.50/11/1
BTTS – yes1/11/1

Match preview

Alaves host Malaga in the La Liga (Regular Season - 10) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz, with kick-off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Alaves favourites, giving Alaves a 57% chance of winning, 25% for the draw and 18% for Malaga. Our tip is: Alaves to win.

Alaves have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L). Malaga have taken 0 points from their last 1 games (0W 0D 1L).

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Spain La Liga
Date
Friday, 23 October 2026, 20:00 WAT
Venue
Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Alaves vs Malaga?

Alaves vs Malaga kicks off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Alaves vs Malaga in?

The match is in the Spain La Liga.

Where are Alaves and Malaga in the table?

Alaves are 10th and Malaga are 20th in the La Liga.

Who will win Alaves vs Malaga?

Our prediction is Alaves to win. Win probabilities: Alaves 57%, draw 25%, Malaga 18%.

Will both teams score in Alaves vs Malaga?

We estimate a 46% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is No.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Alaves vs Malaga?

We estimate a 46% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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