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UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar prediction

UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar prediction for the Primera División on 23 Oct 2026: FBC Melgar to win (62%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday23October 2026
Yesterday: 78/96 correct(81%)
Primera División · Clausura - 13
UTC CajamarcaNo recent gamesFBC MelgarNo recent games
1 - 2Full time · Fri 23 OctHT 0-1
Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca

Match events

UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar
  1. 7'Goal: Bernardo CuestaAssist: Walter Tandazo
  2. Yellow card: David DiosesFoul34'
  3. Yellow card: Manuel GanozaDissent34'
  4. 45'Substitution: Walter TandazoOff: Marcos Portillo
  5. Substitution: Marlon de JesúsOff: Abdiel Arroyo45'
  6. Substitution: Francesco CavagnaOff: Dylan Caro45'
  7. 45+3'Substitution: Bernardo CuestaOff: Jefferson Caceres

HT 0-1

  1. Substitution: David DiosesOff: Joshua Cantt61'
  2. 64'Yellow card: Juan EscobarDissent
  3. 68'Goal: Nicolas QuagliataAssist: Nelson Cabanillas
  4. Substitution: Luis ArceOff: Jhosep Nunez70'
  5. Substitution: David CamachoOff: Gilmar Paredes70'
  6. Yellow card: Joshua CanttFoul74'
  7. 75'Substitution: Nicolas QuagliataOff: Jesús Alcantar
  8. 81'Substitution: Johnny VidalesOff: Franco Zanelatto
  9. Goal: Luis GarroAssist: Adolfo Muñoz87'
  10. 90'Yellow card: Jesús AlcantarFoul
  11. 90+3'Yellow card: Cristian BordacaharFoul

Our verdict

2 ✓

FBC Melgar to win

Bet365 1.50

62%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-2

Expected goals3.0

Win probability

1 · UTC Cajamarca16%
Fair odds 6.25
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · FBC Melgar62%
Fair odds 1.61

Match statistics

  • 53%Possession47%
  • 1.31Expected goals (xG)0.92
  • 18Total shots7
  • 9Shots on target5
  • 4Shots off target2
  • 5Blocked shots0
  • 5Shots inside the box2
  • 4Corners2
  • 0Offsides2
  • 10Fouls10
  • 3Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves8
  • 443Passes394
  • 363Accurate passes328

Line-ups

UTC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Á. CamposG
  2. 17L. GarroD
  3. 3M. GanozaD
  4. 2B. DuarteD
  5. 6F. CavagnaD
  6. 8D. DiosesM
  7. 88L. ArceM
  8. 22D. CamachoM
  9. 10M. LliuyaM
  10. 19A. MuñozM
  11. 9M. de JesúsF

Substitutes

  1. 11A. ArroyoF
  2. 29I. BarriosG
  3. 21R. BettocchiG
  4. 15J. CerroM
  5. 13D. CaroD
  6. 18S. GálvezF
  7. 7J. NunezF
  8. 35G. ParedesD

Coach: C. Molins

FBC Melgar

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 21J. CabezudoG
  2. 33M. LazoD
  3. 23J. EscobarD
  4. 3L. GonzálezD
  5. 27N. CabanillasD
  6. 66H. OrzánM
  7. 24W. TandazoM
  8. 7C. BordacaharM
  9. 10N. QuagliataM
  10. 11J. VidalesM
  11. 9B. CuestaF

Substitutes

  1. 45Matias ZegarraD
  2. 77F. ZanelattoF
  3. 26M. PortilloM
  4. 8L. GuzmánF
  5. 5A. DeneumostierD
  6. 80J. D´ArrigoM
  7. 16J. CáceresM
  8. 12C. CácedaG
  9. 90J. AlcántarD

Coach: M. Rondelli

Betting markets

Expected goals 0.94 – 2.01
0.5 goalsOver94.8%Under5.2%
1.5 goalsOver79.3%Under20.7%
2.5 goalsOver56.6%Under43.4%
3.5 goalsOver34.2%Under65.8%
4.5 goalsOver17.6%Under82.4%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

UTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
32%Expected goals68%
21%Overall79%

Last matches

Newest first
UTC Cajamarca0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

FBC Melgar0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Primera División table

Primera División table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Sport Huancayo2+46
2Cusco2+13
3Club Deportivo Los Chankas1+13
4FBC Melgar1+13
5Atletico Grau101
6ADT2-11
7UTC Cajamarca1-10
8Sporting Cristal1-20
9Alianza Atletico1-30
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatUTC CajamarcaFBC Melgar
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

UTC Cajamarca host FBC Melgar in the Primera División (Clausura - 13) at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca, with kick-off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 19:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes FBC Melgar favourites, giving UTC Cajamarca a 16% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 62% for FBC Melgar. Our tip is: FBC Melgar to win.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 and a 53% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Peru Primera División
Date
Friday, 23 October 2026, 19:00 WAT
Venue
Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar kicks off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 19:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar in?

The match is in the Peru Primera División.

Where are UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar in the table?

UTC Cajamarca are 7th and FBC Melgar are 4th in the Primera División.

Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

Our prediction is FBC Melgar to win. Win probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 16%, draw 22%, FBC Melgar 62%.

Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

We estimate a 53% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

We estimate a 56% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Primera División on Fri 23 Oct

FTAtletico Grau 1-1 ADT1 ✗

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