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Independiente vs Boca Juniors prediction

Independiente vs Boca Juniors prediction for the Liga Profesional Argentina on 25 Oct 2026: Boca Juniors or draw (75%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Sunday25October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14
IndependienteBoca JuniorsNo recent games
0 - 1Full time · Sun 25 OctHT 0-0
Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires

Match events

IndependienteBoca Juniors
  1. 20'Yellow card: Lautaro Di LolloFoul
  2. Yellow card: Iván MarconeFoul45+1'

HT 0-0

  1. Yellow card: Chimy ÁvilaArgument53'
  2. 60'Substitution: Alan VelascoOff: Sebastián Villa
  3. Yellow card: Mateo Pérez CurciFoul64'
  4. 66'Substitution: Miguel MerentielOff: Enner Valencia
  5. 67'Yellow card: Milton DelgadoFoul
  6. Substitution: Josias PalaisOff: Matías Abaldo69'
  7. 77'Yellow card: Facundo Ezequiel HerreraArgument
  8. Substitution: Maximiliano MezaOff: Iván Morales77'
  9. Substitution: Mateo Pérez CurciOff: Rubén David Martínez78'
  10. 81'Substitution: Leonel FloresOff: Carlos Palacios
  11. Substitution: Chimy ÁvilaOff: Tomás Parmo86'
  12. Substitution: Santiago Gabriel MontielOff: Felipe Tempone86'
  13. 88'Goal: Facundo Ezequiel HerreraAssist: Sebastián Villa
  14. 90+2'Yellow card: Malcon BraidaFoul

Our verdict

X2 ✓

Boca Juniors or draw

Bet365 1.22

75%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 0-1

Expected goals2.3

Win probability

1 · Independiente25%
Fair odds 4.00
X · Draw29%
Fair odds 3.45
2 · Boca Juniors46%
Fair odds 2.17

Match statistics

  • 34%Possession66%
  • 1.32Expected goals (xG)1.59
  • 23Total shots10
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 16Shots off target4
  • 2Blocked shots2
  • 14Shots inside the box7
  • 4Corners3
  • 0Offsides2
  • 14Fouls17
  • 3Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves5
  • 309Passes602
  • 226Accurate passes525

Line-ups

Independiente

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 77S. MeleG
  2. 4S. AriasD
  3. 36S. ValdezD
  4. 35J. ArrayagoD
  5. 5N. BanegasD
  6. 16M. PerezM
  7. 23I. MarconeM
  8. 8M. MezaM
  9. 7S. MontielF
  10. 6E. ÁvilaF
  11. 24J. PalaisF

Substitutes

  1. 10L. CabralM
  2. 2F. CalderónD
  3. 13J. FedorcoD
  4. 29L. GodoyD
  5. 32D. MartínezM
  6. 14Lautaro MillánM
  7. 9I. MoralesF
  8. 30Tomás ParmoM
  9. 33R. ReyG
  10. 34F. TemponeF
  11. 22F. ZabalaD
  12. 19M. AbaldoF

Coach: Jádson Viera

Boca Juniors

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Á. MonteroG
  2. 17L. LozanoD
  3. 2L. Di LolloD
  4. 42F. HerreraD
  5. 27M. BraidaD
  6. 5L. ParedesM
  7. 18M. DelgadoM
  8. 25S. AscacíbarM
  9. 20A. VelascoM
  10. 19L. FloresM
  11. 16M. MerentielF

Substitutes

  1. 6R. BattagliaM
  2. 15W. AlarcónM
  3. 12L. BreyG
  4. 32A. CostaD
  5. 4N. FigalD
  6. 9M. GiménezF
  7. 24D. GorositoD
  8. 7C. PalaciosM
  9. 26Marco PellegrinoD
  10. 53Joaquín RuízF
  11. 13E. ValenciaF
  12. 22S. VillaF

Coach: R. Arruabarrena

Betting markets

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.38
0.5 goalsOver90.2%Under9.8%
1.5 goalsOver67.4%Under32.6%
2.5 goalsOver40.9%Under59.1%
3.5 goalsOver20.5%Under79.5%
4.5 goalsOver8.6%Under91.4%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

IndependienteBoca Juniors
100%Form0%
100%Attack0%
17%Defence83%
50%Head to head50%
41%Expected goals59%
35%Overall65%

Last matches

Newest first
Independiente0W 1D 0L · last 1
DRacing Club vs Independiente18 Oct 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina1-1
Boca Juniors0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
1Independ. Rivadavia16+1434
2Boca Juniors16+1330
2River Plate16+1029
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
3Argentinos JRS16+429
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
4Rosario Central16+428
5Independiente16+424
5Belgrano Cordoba16+426
6Lanus16+324
6Gimnasia L.P.16026
7San Lorenzo16022
7Huracan16+422
8Union Santa Fe16+421
8Racing Club16+221
9Instituto Cordoba16021
9Barracas Central16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
10Tigre16+320
11Gimnasia M.16-819
11Sarmiento Junin16-719
12Platense16-516
12Banfield16-218
13Central Cordoba de Santiago16-1016
13Atletico Tucuman16-514
14Newells Old Boys16-1215
14Aldosivi16-138
15Deportivo Riestra16-711
15Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto16-195
See full table ›

Top scorers

Liga Profesional Argentina top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1C. TarragonaUnion Santa Fe3215
2A. MódicaGimnasia M.2714
3J. MarabelSarmiento Junin3114
4J. CaicedoHuracan2814
5R. MartínezVelez Sarsfield3013

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatIndependienteBoca Juniors
Played10
Wins00
Draws10
Losses00
Goals for (avg)10
Goals against (avg)10
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Recent goal lines

How many of each team's last 1 games went over the line

Over 1.51/10/0
Over 2.50/10/0
Over 3.50/10/0
BTTS – yes1/10/0

Match preview

Independiente host Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Clausura - 14) at Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires, with kick-off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 21:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Boca Juniors slight favourites, giving Independiente a 25% chance of winning, 29% for the draw and 46% for Boca Juniors. Our tip is: Boca Juniors or draw.

Independiente have taken 1 points from their last 1 games (0W 1D 0L).

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina
Date
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 21:00 WAT
Venue
Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Independiente vs Boca Juniors kicks off on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 21:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Independiente vs Boca Juniors in?

The match is in the Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina.

Where are Independiente and Boca Juniors in the table?

Independiente are 5th and Boca Juniors are 2nd in the Liga Profesional Argentina.

Who will win Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Our prediction is Boca Juniors or draw. Win probabilities: Independiente 25%, draw 29%, Boca Juniors 46%.

Will both teams score in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

We estimate a 46% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is No.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

We estimate a 41% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Liga Profesional Argentina on Sun 25 Oct

FTAldosivi 1-0 Belgrano CordobaX2 ✗

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