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Atletico-MG vs Coritiba prediction

Atletico-MG vs Coritiba prediction for the Brasileiro Série A on 17 Oct 2026: Atletico-MG to win (61%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday17October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Brasileiro Série A · Regular Season - 31
Atletico-MGNo recent gamesCoritibaNo recent games
1 - 0Full time · Sat 17 OctHT 0-0
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte

Match events

Atletico-MGCoritiba
  1. Substitution: Thiago BorbasOff: Reinier Jesus Carvalho45'

HT 0-0

  1. 60'Substitution: Rodrigo RodriguesOff: Paulo Roberto
  2. 61'Substitution: Joaquin LavegaOff: Breno Lopes
  3. 62'Substitution: Fabricio BustosOff: Tinga
  4. Substitution: Tomás PérezOff: Kevin Castaño62'
  5. Substitution: Alan MindaOff: Tomás Cuello62'
  6. Substitution: Kaua PasciniOff: Renan Lodi62'
  7. Substitution: Victor Hugo Gomes SilvaOff: Mamady Cisse74'
  8. Goal: Igor GomesAssist: Natanael Moreira Milouski78'
  9. 79'Substitution: Sebastián GómezOff: Nicolas Fonseca
  10. 79'Substitution: Brian OcampoOff: Pedro Rocha
  11. 90+4'Yellow card: Bruno MeloFoul

Our verdict

1 ✓

Atletico-MG to win

Bet365 1.53

61%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-0

Expected goals2.8

Win probability

1 · Atletico-MG61%
Fair odds 1.64
X · Draw23%
Fair odds 4.35
2 · Coritiba16%
Fair odds 6.25

Match statistics

  • 58%Possession42%
  • 1.36Expected goals (xG)0.69
  • 22Total shots13
  • 10Shots on target3
  • 5Shots off target7
  • 7Blocked shots3
  • 14Shots inside the box7
  • 10Corners5
  • 3Offsides1
  • 16Fouls11
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 3Goalkeeper saves9
  • 540Passes393
  • 489Accurate passes327

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Gabriel DelfimG
  2. 2NatanaelD
  3. 3Léo DuarteD
  4. 14Vitor HugoD
  5. 36K. PasciniD
  6. 25T. PérezM
  7. 5AlexsanderM
  8. 27A. MindaM
  9. 39Mamady CisseM
  10. 17Igor GomesM
  11. 18T. BorbasF

Substitutes

  1. 19ReinierM
  2. 92DuduF
  3. 31RobertG
  4. 23A. PreciadoD
  5. 13LyancoD
  6. 8MayconM
  7. 11BernardM
  8. 15K. CastañoM
  9. 28T. CuelloF
  10. 40VitãoD
  11. 30Victor HugoM
  12. 6Renan LodiD

Coach: E. Domínguez

Coritiba

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Pedro LuccasG
  2. 14F. BustosD
  3. 23Tiago CóserD
  4. 55JacyD
  5. 26Bruno MeloD
  6. 21Thiago SantosM
  7. 19S. GómezM
  8. 32Pedro RochaM
  9. 10JosuéM
  10. 7J. LavegaM
  11. 18Paulo RobertoF

Substitutes

  1. 36Vini PaulistaF
  2. 5N. FonsecaM
  3. 13KeillerG
  4. 3MaiconD
  5. 17B. OcampoF
  6. 78Renato MarquesF
  7. 4Rodrigo MoledoD
  8. 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
  9. 2TingaD
  10. 50TissiM
  11. 77Breno LopesF
  12. 6Felipe JonatanD

Coach: Fernando Seabra

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.90
0.5 goalsOver94.2%Under5.8%
1.5 goalsOver77.6%Under22.4%
2.5 goalsOver54.0%Under46.0%
3.5 goalsOver31.7%Under68.3%
4.5 goalsOver15.9%Under84.1%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Atletico-MGCoritiba
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
68%Expected goals32%
79%Overall21%

Last matches

Newest first
Atletico-MG0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Coritiba0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Brasileiro Série A table

Brasileiro Série A table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
11Coritiba33-1042
12Botafogo33-839
13Vasco DA Gama32-938
14Vitoria33-1338
15Gremio33-737
16Mirassol33-1037
17Corinthians33-636
18Internacional33-535
19Remo33-1529
20Chapecoense-sc32-3421
See full table ›

Top scorers

Brasileiro Série A top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1K. ViverosAtletico Paranaense3121
2PedroFlamengo3318
3Gabriel BarbosaSantos2515
4Kaio JorgeCruzeiro2612
5Samuel LinoFlamengo3211

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAtletico-MGCoritiba
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Atletico-MG host Coritiba in the Brasileiro Série A (Regular Season - 31) at MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte, with kick-off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 22:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Atletico-MG favourites, giving Atletico-MG a 61% chance of winning, 23% for the draw and 16% for Coritiba. Our tip is: Atletico-MG to win.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 54% chance of over 2.5 and a 51% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Brazil Brasileiro Série A
Date
Saturday, 17 October 2026, 22:30 WAT
Venue
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?

Atletico-MG vs Coritiba kicks off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 22:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Atletico-MG vs Coritiba in?

The match is in the Brazil Brasileiro Série A.

Where are Atletico-MG and Coritiba in the table?

Atletico-MG are 7th and Coritiba are 11th in the Brasileiro Série A.

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?

Our prediction is Atletico-MG to win. Win probabilities: Atletico-MG 61%, draw 23%, Coritiba 16%.

Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?

We estimate a 51% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?

We estimate a 54% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Brasileiro Série A on Sat 17 Oct

FTBotafogo 1-0 Chapecoense-sc1 ✓

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