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Vitória SC vs Maritimo prediction

Vitória SC vs Maritimo prediction for the Liga Portugal on 23 Oct 2026: Vitória SC or Maritimo (74%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday23October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Liga Portugal · Regular Season - 9
Vitória SCNo recent gamesMaritimoNo recent games
5 - 0Full time · Fri 23 OctHT 1-0
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Match events

Vitória SCMaritimo
  1. Yellow card: Gustavo SilvaFoul12'
  2. Yellow card: Gonçalo NogueiraFoul17'
  3. Yellow card: Toni BorevkovićDissent22'
  4. 36'Yellow card: Raphael GuzzoDissent
  5. 36'Yellow card: Tomas TavaresFoul
  6. Goal: Arnel Jakupović38'
  7. 45'Substitution: Tomas TavaresOff: Simo Bouzaidi

HT 1-0

  1. Own goal: Paulo Henrique (og)48'
  2. Goal: Oumar Camara60'
  3. 62'Yellow card: Rodri AndradeFoul
  4. Yellow card: Fábio Samuel Amorim SilvaFoul63'
  5. Substitution: Gustavo SilvaOff: Victor Andersson66'
  6. Substitution: Lohann DoucetOff: Gonçalo Nogueira66'
  7. 69'Substitution: Ibrahim Akitunde AlaniOff: Raphael Guzzo
  8. 69'Substitution: Maxime DominguezOff: Nilton Varela
  9. Goal: Arnel JakupovićAssist: Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva76'
  10. Substitution: Fábio Samuel Amorim SilvaOff: Alan de Souza Guimarães78'
  11. Substitution: Ahmed SidibéOff: Yeimar Mosquera78'
  12. Substitution: Arnel JakupovićOff: Alioune Ndoye78'
  13. 80'Substitution: Mons Rogeani BassouaminaOff: Martín Tejón
  14. 86'Substitution: Maurice BoakyeOff: Adrián Butzke
  15. Goal: Yeimar MosqueraAssist: Alan de Souza Guimarães90'

Our verdict

12 ✓

Vitória SC or Maritimo

Bet365 1.28

74%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 5-0

Expected goals2.5

Win probability

1 · Vitória SC54%
Fair odds 1.85
X · Draw26%
Fair odds 3.85
2 · Maritimo20%
Fair odds 5.00

Match statistics

  • 57%Possession43%
  • 1.74Expected goals (xG)0.54
  • 16Total shots10
  • 8Shots on target2
  • 4Shots off target6
  • 4Blocked shots2
  • 10Shots inside the box4
  • 6Corners5
  • 1Offsides6
  • 15Fouls11
  • 4Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Goalkeeper saves3
  • 443Passes324
  • 355Accurate passes244

Line-ups

Vitória SC

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 98Lucas FurtadoG
  2. 23T. StrataD
  3. 21T. BorevkovićD
  4. 5A. SidibéD
  5. 13João MendesD
  6. 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
  7. 16BeniM
  8. 7O. CamaraM
  9. 20SamuM
  10. 11GustavoM
  11. 9A. JakupovicF

Substitutes

  1. 10AlanM
  2. 48O. ZychG
  3. 4Óscar RivasD
  4. 29V. OuotroF
  5. 24A. NdoyeF
  6. 15Y. MosqueraD
  7. 19V. AnderssonM
  8. 44L. DoucetM
  9. 2Miguel MagaD
  10. 6M. MitrovićM
  11. 17Miguel NogueiraF
  12. 40Mohammed KebdaniD

Coach: Tiago Margarido

Maritimo

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 30Fran VieitesG
  2. 2Igor JuliãoD
  3. 44Romain CorreiaD
  4. 22G. SzalaiD
  5. 23Paulo HenriqueD
  6. 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  7. 14Raphael GuzzoM
  8. 15Tomás TavaresM
  9. 8M. DominguezM
  10. 10Martín TejónM
  11. 17Adrián ButzkeF

Substitutes

  1. 21I. AlaniM
  2. 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
  3. 27S. BambaF
  4. 12M. BassouaminaF
  5. 11M. DiouriF
  6. 4Rafael FernandesD
  7. 35B. LimbombeF
  8. 5Nilton VarelaD
  9. 3N. OgbetaD
  10. 13Alfonso PastorG
  11. 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
  12. 66I. AyumaM

Coach: M. van der Gaag

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.89
0.5 goalsOver92.0%Under8.0%
1.5 goalsOver71.7%Under28.3%
2.5 goalsOver46.1%Under53.9%
3.5 goalsOver24.7%Under75.3%
4.5 goalsOver11.2%Under88.8%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Vitória SCMaritimo
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
65%Expected goals35%
73%Overall27%

Last matches

Newest first
Vitória SC0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Maritimo0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Liga Portugal table

Liga Portugal table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
11Famalicao10010
12Estrela10-410
13Vitória SC908
14Maritimo10-128
15Nacional10-97
16Rio Ave10-147
17Casa Pia10-147
18Estoril10-142
See full table ›

Top scorers

Liga Portugal top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1V. PavlidisBenfica99
2L. SuárezSporting CP108
3G. PrestianniBenfica96
4Borja SainzFC Porto105
5Pau VictorSC Braga105

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatVitória SCMaritimo
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Vitória SC host Maritimo in the Liga Portugal (Regular Season - 9) at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães, with kick-off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Vitória SC favourites, giving Vitória SC a 54% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 20% for Maritimo. Our tip is: Vitória SC or Maritimo.

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Portugal Liga Portugal
Date
Friday, 23 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
Venue
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Vitória SC vs Maritimo?

Vitória SC vs Maritimo kicks off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Vitória SC vs Maritimo in?

The match is in the Portugal Liga Portugal.

Where are Vitória SC and Maritimo in the table?

Vitória SC are 13th and Maritimo are 14th in the Liga Portugal.

Who will win Vitória SC vs Maritimo?

Our prediction is Vitória SC or Maritimo. Win probabilities: Vitória SC 54%, draw 26%, Maritimo 20%.

Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Maritimo?

We estimate a 48% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is No.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vitória SC vs Maritimo?

We estimate a 46% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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