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Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC prediction

Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC prediction for the Liga Pro on 19 Oct 2026: Under 3.5 (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Monday19October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 3
Mushuc Runa SCNo recent gamesOrense SCNo recent games
1 - 1Full time · Mon 19 OctHT 1-1
Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, Ambato

Match events

Mushuc Runa SCOrense SC
  1. 5'Goal: W. HerreraAssist: Beder Caicedo
  2. Penalty goal: Freddy Mina (pen)22'
  3. 38'Yellow card: Juan Pablo Buch PabónDissent
  4. Substitution: Tomson MindaOff: Jefferson Caicedo42'

HT 1-1

  1. 56'Substitution: Pedro VelascoOff: B. Quiñonez
  2. Substitution: Arnaldo ZambranoOff: Nazareno Bazán58'
  3. Substitution: Renso TufinoOff: Bryan Corozo58'
  4. Yellow card: Ronny BiojóFoul61'
  5. Yellow card: Rodrigo FormentoDissent61'
  6. 69'Substitution: Bryan Elián Viñán RodríguezOff: Wilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga
  7. Substitution: Freddy MinaOff: Elian Caicedo75'
  8. 76'Substitution: Gonzalo RostagnoOff: Christian Alejandro Ortíz Calle
  9. 76'Substitution: J. ValenciaOff: Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes
  10. 76'Substitution: W. HerreraOff: Luis Miguel Garcés Carrion
  11. Substitution: Miguel PereaOff: Kevin Peralta76'

Our verdict

Under 3.5 ✓

Under 3.5

Bet365 1.25

76%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 1-1

Expected goals2.5

Win probability

1 · Mushuc Runa SC50%
Fair odds 2.00
X · Draw27%
Fair odds 3.70
2 · Orense SC23%
Fair odds 4.35

Match statistics

  • 72%Possession28%
  • 1.51Expected goals (xG)1.11
  • 13Total shots15
  • 3Shots on target8
  • 7Shots off target3
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 6Shots inside the box8
  • 6Corners3
  • 0Offsides2
  • 11Fouls16
  • 2Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0
  • 7Goalkeeper saves2
  • 490Passes196
  • 428Accurate passes140

Line-ups

Mushuc Runa SC

4-4-2

Starting XI

  1. 25R. FormentoG
  2. 99Cristopher Adonis Angulo CaicedoD
  3. 30F. CarabalíD
  4. 4Ronny Alfonso Biojo PreciadoD
  5. 33M. HernándezD
  6. 7T. MindaM
  7. 5Esteban Nicolás Dávila AlarcónM
  8. 8A. ZambranoM
  9. 28M. PereaM
  10. 9R. TufinoF
  11. 10F. MinaF

Substitutes

  1. 11N. BazánF
  2. 61J. CaicedoF
  3. 14E. CaicedoF
  4. 19B. CorozoM
  5. 50J. CusmeD
  6. 2J. FlorD
  7. 18J. GonzalezM
  8. 52D. MerinoM
  9. 42W. PabónG
  10. 26K. PeraltaD
  11. 37J. QuiñonesD
  12. 53David Aidan Solís AráuzD

Coach: P. Vélez

Orense SC

3-4-3

Starting XI

  1. 12R. SilvaG
  2. 4M. QuiñonezD
  3. 24G. AchilierD
  4. 3Sixto Romario Mina ArroyoD
  5. 31P. VelascoM
  6. 21G. RostagnoM
  7. 25R. JaramilloM
  8. 15B. CaicedoM
  9. 19Michael Alessandro Bermúdez ReyesF
  10. 11A. HerreraF
  11. 77B. ViñánF

Substitutes

  1. 6S. CallegariD
  2. 23Wilson Arturo Chuchuca ArreagaM
  3. 53L. GarcesF
  4. 74C. BarrioM
  5. 59J. VeraM
  6. 26N. MolinaM
  7. 22J. OrtizG
  8. 51C. OrtízM
  9. 14E. PluasM
  10. 2B. QuiñonezD
  11. 88J. ValenciaF

Coach: J. Buch

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.54 – 0.96
0.5 goalsOver91.8%Under8.2%
1.5 goalsOver71.3%Under28.7%
2.5 goalsOver45.6%Under54.4%
3.5 goalsOver24.2%Under75.8%
4.5 goalsOver10.9%Under89.1%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Mushuc Runa SCOrense SC
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
62%Expected goals38%
68%Overall32%

Last matches

Newest first
Mushuc Runa SC0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Orense SC0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Liga Pro table

Liga Pro table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Tecnico Universitario1+33
2Orense SC101
3Mushuc Runa SC2-31
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatMushuc Runa SCOrense SC
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Mushuc Runa SC host Orense SC in the Liga Pro (Relegation Group - 3) at Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, Ambato, with kick-off on Monday, 19 October 2026 at 21:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Mushuc Runa SC favourites, giving Mushuc Runa SC a 50% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 23% for Orense SC. Our tip is: Under 3.5.

On the goals markets, we expect a tighter game, with only a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Ecuador Liga Pro
Date
Monday, 19 October 2026, 21:30 WAT
Venue
Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, Ambato

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC?

Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC kicks off on Monday, 19 October 2026 at 21:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC in?

The match is in the Ecuador Liga Pro.

Where are Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC in the table?

Mushuc Runa SC are 3rd and Orense SC are 2nd in the Liga Pro.

Who will win Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC?

Our prediction is Under 3.5. Win probabilities: Mushuc Runa SC 50%, draw 27%, Orense SC 23%.

Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC?

We estimate a 49% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is No.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC?

We estimate a 46% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Under 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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