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Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap prediction

Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap prediction for the Eerste Divisie on 19 Oct 2026: De Graafschap or draw (63%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Monday19October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 11
Jong AjaxNo recent gamesDe GraafschapNo recent games
2 - 1Full time · Mon 19 OctHT 1-1
Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam

Match events

Jong AjaxDe Graafschap
  1. Yellow card: Marvyn MuzunguFoul14'
  2. Yellow card: Ryan van de PavertFoul21'
  3. Goal: emre unuvar43'
  4. 45'Goal: Donny WarmerdamAssist: Mark Diemers

HT 1-1

  1. 60'Substitution: Julian kaniaOff: Kyano Kwint
  2. 60'Substitution: gabriele finocchiaroOff: Bjorn van Zijl
  3. 60'Substitution: Levi SchoppemaOff: Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff
  4. Substitution: Anass MoumaneOff: Leo Salazar72'
  5. 72'Yellow card: Rowan BesselinkFoul
  6. 78'Substitution: Toivo MeroOff: Nart Ahmeti-Grainca
  7. Substitution: Jahyendrow AmourOff: Sinclair de Falco78'
  8. Substitution: Mohamed Jabou AbdallaOff: Levi Acheampong78'
  9. Goal: Jano MonserrateAssist: Ryan van de Pavert79'
  10. Substitution: Ryan van de PavertOff: Mylo van der Lans85'
  11. Substitution: Jano MonserrateOff: Jinairo Johnson85'
  12. 85'Substitution: Thomas KokOff: Clint Leemans

Our verdict

X2 ✗

De Graafschap or draw

Bet365 1.40

63%

✗ This tip lost · final score 2-1

Expected goals3.8

Win probability

1 · Jong Ajax37%
Fair odds 2.70
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · De Graafschap41%
Fair odds 2.44

Match statistics

  • 43%Possession57%
  • 1.93Expected goals (xG)0.75
  • 17Total shots11
  • 9Shots on target5
  • 5Shots off target2
  • 3Blocked shots4
  • 9Shots inside the box7
  • 5Corners5
  • 2Offsides2
  • 17Fouls10
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 4Goalkeeper saves7
  • 338Passes447
  • 279Accurate passes378

Line-ups

Jong Ajax

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 1C. SetfordG
  2. 2R. van de PavertD
  3. 3G. SpinaD
  4. 4M. MuzunguD
  5. 5J. AmourD
  6. 10Alejandro MonserrateM
  7. 6T. PetersM
  8. 8Mohamed AbdallaM
  9. 7Leo SalazarF
  10. 9E. ÜnüvarF
  11. 11P. NashF

Substitutes

  1. 16A. AppiahD
  2. 21L. AcheampongM
  3. 19A. CamaraM
  4. 12A. HaniG
  5. 20Jinairo JohnsonD
  6. 24A. MoumaneF
  7. 22J. SimeonF
  8. 23P. Da SilvaF
  9. 18Sinclair de FalcoD
  10. 17M. van der LansD
  11. 25D. van der VaartM
  12. 30V. van der VeldeG

Coach: Carlos García

De Graafschap

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 1T. WieggersG
  2. 16N. MartensD
  3. 3R. BesselinkD
  4. 15T. KokD
  5. 5L. SchoppemaD
  6. 10F. de JongM
  7. 23M. DiemersM
  8. 8D. WarmerdamM
  9. 20Gabriele FinocchiaroF
  10. 40Kyano KwintF
  11. 11T. MeroF

Substitutes

  1. 2J. WieckhoffD
  2. 28J. TriepM
  3. 21K. SymonsD
  4. 22P. ReversonG
  5. 6C. LeemansM
  6. 17N. KanindaF
  7. 9J. KaniaF
  8. 33R. JonkersG
  9. 4J. HardemanD
  10. 14Gijs BolkD
  11. 27N. Ahmeti-GraincaM
  12. 7Bjorn van ZijlF

Coach: T. Duivenvoorden

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.93
0.5 goalsOver97.7%Under2.3%
1.5 goalsOver88.9%Under11.1%
2.5 goalsOver72.5%Under27.5%
3.5 goalsOver51.8%Under48.2%
4.5 goalsOver32.4%Under67.6%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Jong AjaxDe Graafschap
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
49%Expected goals51%
47%Overall53%

Last matches

Newest first
Jong Ajax0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

De Graafschap0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Eerste Divisie table

Eerste Divisie table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Roda3+39
2VVV Venlo2+24
3NAC Breda2+24
4Jong Ajax2+14
5Jong AZ304
6De Graafschap304
7FC Volendam2+33
8Emmen1+23
9Almere City FC203
10Jong PSV U21203
11Dordrecht2-13
12Vitesse2-13
13Helmond Sport3-23
14FC OSS101
15Den Bosch101
16MVV101
17Heracles101
18Waalwijk2-11
19FC Eindhoven3-30
20Jong Utrecht2-50
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Jong Ajax host De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie (Regular Season - 11) at Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam, with kick-off on Monday, 19 October 2026 at 19:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes De Graafschap slight favourites, giving Jong Ajax a 37% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 41% for De Graafschap. Our tip is: De Graafschap or draw.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 and a 72% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Date
Monday, 19 October 2026, 19:00 WAT
Venue
Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?

Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap kicks off on Monday, 19 October 2026 at 19:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap in?

The match is in the Netherlands Eerste Divisie.

Where are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in the table?

Jong Ajax are 4th and De Graafschap are 6th in the Eerste Divisie.

Who will win Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?

Our prediction is De Graafschap or draw. Win probabilities: Jong Ajax 37%, draw 22%, De Graafschap 41%.

Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?

We estimate a 72% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?

We estimate a 72% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Eerste Divisie on Mon 19 Oct

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