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Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction

Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction for the Eredivisie on 16 Oct 2026: Heerenveen to win (56%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Friday16October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Eredivisie · Regular Season - 9
HeerenveenNo recent gamesExcelsiorNo recent games
4 - 0Full time · Fri 16 OctHT 1-0
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Match events

HeerenveenExcelsior
  1. Penalty goal: Dylan Vente (pen)11'
  2. 43'Yellow card: Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonFoul
  3. 45'Substitution: David GardenOff: Mario Domínguez Franco

HT 1-0

  1. Goal: Oliver Johansen BraudeAssist: Jacob Trenskow54'
  2. 66'Substitution: Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonOff: Ilano Silva Timas
  3. 66'Substitution: Aymen slitiOff: Valentin Sulzbacher
  4. 66'Substitution: Simon JanssenOff: Osman Turay
  5. Substitution: Maxence RiveraOff: Marko Farji73'
  6. 77'Substitution: Eric da Silva MoreiraOff: Noah Naujoks
  7. Substitution: Nolhan courtensOff: Luca Oyen82'
  8. Substitution: Levi SmansOff: Ringo Meerveld82'
  9. Substitution: Dylan VenteOff: Roberts Uldriķis82'
  10. Goal: Luca OyenAssist: Ringo Meerveld84'
  11. Substitution: Maas WillemsenOff: Hristiyan Petrov86'
  12. Goal: Jacob Trenskow88'

Our verdict

1 ✓

Heerenveen to win

Bet365 1.55

56%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 4-0

Expected goals3.3

Win probability

1 · Heerenveen56%
Fair odds 1.79
X · Draw22%
Fair odds 4.55
2 · Excelsior22%
Fair odds 4.55

Match statistics

  • 52%Possession48%
  • 2.32Expected goals (xG)0.73
  • 14Total shots5
  • 7Shots on target1
  • 6Shots off target3
  • 1Blocked shots1
  • 12Shots inside the box3
  • 4Corners1
  • 3Offsides0
  • 9Fouls10
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0
  • 1Goalkeeper saves3
  • 519Passes491
  • 444Accurate passes400

Line-ups

Heerenveen

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1B. KlaverboerG
  2. 45O. BraudeD
  3. 4S. KerstenD
  4. 3M. WillemsenD
  5. 19V. ZagaritisD
  6. 16M. LindayM
  7. 8N. CourtensM
  8. 20J. TrenskowM
  9. 14L. SmansM
  10. 7M. RiveraM
  11. 9D. VenteF

Substitutes

  1. 23D. BladiD
  2. 49Anass BouzianeM
  3. 21M. FarjiF
  4. 2M. HilgersD
  5. 28H. PetrovD
  6. 29L. MachineF
  7. 10R. MeerveldM
  8. 15M. EgbringD
  9. 44A. NoppertG
  10. 11L. OyenF
  11. 30T. SchreuderG
  12. 17R. UldriķisF

Coach: R. Veldeman

Excelsior

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 1S. van GasselG
  2. 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
  3. 4C. WidellD
  4. 14J. PlugD
  5. 15S. JanssenD
  6. 8I. YegoianM
  7. 3R. MeissenM
  8. 20L. HartjesM
  9. 7A. SlitiF
  10. 19D. GardenF
  11. 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF

Substitutes

  1. 6D. van VianenM
  2. 22O. TurayD
  3. 18V. SulzbacherM
  4. 21I. Silva TimasF
  5. 10N. NaujoksM
  6. 11A. JahanbakhshF
  7. 28N. GroenF
  8. 9Mario DomínguezF
  9. 24Giulliano CairoM
  10. 16Celton BiaiG

Coach: R. den Uil

Betting markets

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.26
0.5 goalsOver96.4%Under3.6%
1.5 goalsOver84.5%Under15.5%
2.5 goalsOver64.7%Under35.3%
3.5 goalsOver42.6%Under57.4%
4.5 goalsOver24.3%Under75.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

HeerenveenExcelsior
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
62%Expected goals38%
72%Overall28%

Last matches

Newest first
Heerenveen0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Excelsior0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Eredivisie table

Eredivisie table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
11Sparta Rotterdam11-612
12Utrecht11-1212
13NEC Nijmegen11-211
14PEC Zwolle11-1111
15Excelsior11-1211
16Telstar11-79
17ADO Den Haag11-116
18Willem II11-292
See full table ›

Top scorers

Eredivisie top scorers
#PlayerMGoals
1S. TengstedtGO Ahead Eagles118
2B. WillumssonGroningen108
3G. TilPSV Eindhoven117
4J. BrandtAjax116
5J. TrenskowHeerenveen116

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatHeerenveenExcelsior
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Heerenveen host Excelsior in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 9) at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen, with kick-off on Friday, 16 October 2026 at 19:00 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Heerenveen favourites, giving Heerenveen a 56% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 22% for Excelsior. Our tip is: Heerenveen to win.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 and a 63% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Netherlands Eredivisie
Date
Friday, 16 October 2026, 19:00 WAT
Venue
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

Heerenveen vs Excelsior kicks off on Friday, 16 October 2026 at 19:00 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Heerenveen vs Excelsior in?

The match is in the Netherlands Eredivisie.

Where are Heerenveen and Excelsior in the table?

Heerenveen are 7th and Excelsior are 15th in the Eredivisie.

Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

Our prediction is Heerenveen to win. Win probabilities: Heerenveen 56%, draw 22%, Excelsior 22%.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

We estimate a 63% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

We estimate a 65% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

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