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D. La Serena vs Concepción prediction

D. La Serena vs Concepción prediction for the Primera División on 24 Oct 2026: Over 1.5 (76%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Saturday24October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Primera División · Regular Season - 25
D. La SerenaNo recent gamesConcepciónNo recent games
3 - 1Full time · Sat 24 OctHT 2-1
La Portada, La Serena

Match events

D. La SerenaConcepción
  1. 5'Yellow card: Y. RodríguezFoul
  2. Goal: Matías Marín14'
  3. Yellow card: Francis Mac AllisterFoul20'
  4. 21'Goal: Jorge Henríquez
  5. Goal: Matías MarínAssist: Rafael Delgado37'
  6. 39'Yellow card: Ariel CáceresFoul
  7. 41'Red card: Y. Rodríguez
  8. Yellow card: Matías MarínFoul42'
  9. 45'Substitution: Aldrix JaraOff: Misael Dávila
  10. 45+2'Yellow card: Fausto GrilloFoul

HT 2-1

  1. Yellow card: Diego RubioFoul57'
  2. Substitution: Francis Mac AllisterOff: Sebastián Díaz65'
  3. 72'Substitution: Jorge HenríquezOff: Diego Acosta
  4. 72'Substitution: Mario SandovalOff: Cristian Riquelme
  5. VAR: Lucas AlarconPenalty confirmedVAR81'
  6. Penalty goal: Jeisson Vargas (pen)84'
  7. Substitution: Yahir SalazarOff: Matias Pinto86'
  8. Substitution: Diego RubioOff: Matías Pérez86'
  9. 90+1'Substitution: Ethan EspinozaOff: Joaquín Montecinos
  10. 90+1'Substitution: Joaquín LarriveyOff: Carlos Escobar
  11. Substitution: Matías MarínOff: Ángelo Henríquez90+2'
  12. Substitution: Milovan Joseph Velásquez BlasetOff: G. Figueroa90+2'

Our verdict

Over 1.5 ✓

Over 1.5

Bet365 1.25

76%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 3-1

Expected goals2.7

Win probability

1 · D. La Serena41%
Fair odds 2.44
X · Draw27%
Fair odds 3.70
2 · Concepción32%
Fair odds 3.13

Match statistics

  • 66%Possession34%
  • 2.43Expected goals (xG)0.18
  • 17Total shots3
  • 8Shots on target1
  • 4Shots off target0
  • 5Blocked shots2
  • 9Shots inside the box1
  • 11Corners3
  • 1Offsides0
  • 20Fouls15
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards1
  • 0Goalkeeper saves5
  • 492Passes245
  • 430Accurate passes181

Line-ups

D. La Serena

3-4-1-2

Starting XI

  1. 31J. TapiaG
  2. 34I. RassoD
  3. 5L. AlarcónD
  4. 33R. DelgadoD
  5. 23M. MarínM
  6. 4F. Mac AllisterM
  7. 8G. EscalanteM
  8. 17Y. SalazarM
  9. 10J. VargasM
  10. 11D. RubioF
  11. 2G. FigueroaF

Substitutes

  1. 20Milovan VelasquezM
  2. 6S. DiazM
  3. 16J. GutiérrezD
  4. 9Á. HenríquezF
  5. 28Y. SalazarM
  6. 7A. OrozF
  7. 29M. PintoD
  8. 3M. PérezD
  9. 38I. SáezG

Coach: Felipe Gutiérrez

Concepción

4-3-3

Starting XI

  1. 25N. ArayaG
  2. 4A. CáceresD
  3. 21N. RodríguezD
  4. 37F. GrilloD
  5. 29D. VarasD
  6. 18Y. RodríguezM
  7. 20J. HenríquezM
  8. 16M. SandovalM
  9. 19A. JaraF
  10. 32J. LarriveyF
  11. 30E. EspinozaF

Substitutes

  1. 24M. CavalleriF
  2. 3D. CarrascoD
  3. 27D. AcostaF
  4. 40Franco CaceresF
  5. 22M. DávilaM
  6. 9C. EscobarF
  7. 15J. MontecinosF
  8. 23C. RiquelmeD
  9. 12N. VelosoG

Coach: Fernando Díaz

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.27
0.5 goalsOver93.4%Under6.6%
1.5 goalsOver75.5%Under24.5%
2.5 goalsOver51.1%Under48.9%
3.5 goalsOver29.0%Under71.0%
4.5 goalsOver14.0%Under86.0%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

D. La SerenaConcepción
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
53%Expected goals47%
56%Overall44%

Last matches

Newest first
D. La Serena0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Concepción0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Primera División table

Primera División table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Colo Colo2+54
2D. La Serena2+24
3Universidad de Chile2+23
4Union La Calera2+13
5Nublense1+13
6Coquimbo Unido203
7U. Catolica2-13
8Cobresal101
9Palestino101
10Huachipato101
11Everton de Vina2-31
12Concepción1-20
13Universidad de Concepcion1-50
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatD. La SerenaConcepción
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

D. La Serena host Concepción in the Primera División (Regular Season - 25) at La Portada, La Serena, with kick-off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 16:30 WAT.

Our prediction model makes D. La Serena slight favourites, giving D. La Serena a 41% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 32% for Concepción. Our tip is: Over 1.5.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 and a 56% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Chile Primera División
Date
Saturday, 24 October 2026, 16:30 WAT
Venue
La Portada, La Serena

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is D. La Serena vs Concepción?

D. La Serena vs Concepción kicks off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 16:30 West Africa Time.

Which competition is D. La Serena vs Concepción in?

The match is in the Chile Primera División.

Where are D. La Serena and Concepción in the table?

D. La Serena are 2nd and Concepción are 12th in the Primera División.

Who will win D. La Serena vs Concepción?

Our prediction is Over 1.5. Win probabilities: D. La Serena 41%, draw 27%, Concepción 32%.

Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Concepción?

We estimate a 56% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in D. La Serena vs Concepción?

We estimate a 51% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

All football predictions for today