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Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha prediction

Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha prediction for the Stars League on 22 Oct 2026: Al-Gharafa or draw (66%). Probabilities, betting markets, form, H2H and stats.

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Thursday22October 2026
Yesterday: 52/66 correct(79%)
Stars League · Regular Season - 7
Al-GharafaNo recent gamesAl Ahli DohaNo recent games
2 - 2Full time · Thu 22 OctHT 2-0
Al Gharafa Stadium , Doha

Match events

Al-GharafaAl Ahli Doha
  1. Goal: Seydou SanoAssist: Ismaël Bennacer13'
  2. Yellow card: Amro SuragFoul22'
  3. Goal: Yacine BrahimiAssist: Adam Ounas36'

HT 2-0

  1. 52'Goal: Erik ExpósitoAssist: Naïm Sliti
  2. 58'Substitution: Younis Hussein AbdelrahmanOff: Ismaeel Mohammad
  3. Substitution: Hassan AladinOff: Florinel Coman59'
  4. Substitution: Ismaël BennacerOff: Hyun-Soo Jang65'
  5. 78'Substitution: Ghanem Al-MinhaliOff: Luiz Junior
  6. Substitution: Adam OunasOff: Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi78'
  7. 87'Substitution: Benjamin BourigeaudOff: Hamad Mansour
  8. 87'Substitution: Ayoub AmraouiOff: Suhaib Gannan
  9. 87'Substitution: Robin TihiOff: Zinedine Sassi
  10. 90+3'Goal: Naïm SlitiAssist: Luiz Junior

Our verdict

1X ✓

Al-Gharafa or draw

Bet365 1.40

66%

✓ This tip was correct · final score 2-2

Expected goals3.3

Win probability

1 · Al-Gharafa42%
Fair odds 2.38
X · Draw24%
Fair odds 4.17
2 · Al Ahli Doha34%
Fair odds 2.94

Match statistics

  • 37%Possession63%
  • 1.49Expected goals (xG)2.12
  • 17Total shots25
  • 4Shots on target10
  • 7Shots off target11
  • 6Blocked shots4
  • 12Shots inside the box13
  • 6Corners13
  • 12Fouls9
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0
  • 7Goalkeeper saves2
  • 279Passes464
  • 217Accurate passes403

Line-ups

Al-Gharafa

4-2-3-1

Starting XI

  1. 1Khalifa AbabacarG
  2. 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragD
  3. 4S. SanoD
  4. 6Dame TraoréD
  5. 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
  6. 18Ayoub Al OuiM
  7. 29F. DíazM
  8. 96A. OunasM
  9. 10I. BennacerM
  10. 8Y. BrahimiM
  11. 90A. HassanF

Substitutes

  1. 49R. FaragallaM
  2. 48Fahed Amro Abu HamdehM
  3. 26Rayyan Al AliD
  4. 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiD
  5. 7F. ComanF
  6. 24Hamad KahioutG
  7. 16Jamil FriarkhM
  8. 20Jang Hyun-SooD
  9. 31A. KoneG
  10. 97A. Nasar MohamedF
  11. 19Yousef Saaed AhmedF
  12. 22Abdirashid Saeed HassanM

Coach: Pedro Martins

Al Ahli Doha

4-1-4-1

Starting XI

  1. 13Mohamed LinglizG
  2. 41Ahmed ReyedD
  3. 16R. TihiD
  4. 88A. AmraouiD
  5. 12Ghanem Al MinhaliD
  6. 33D. FettouhiM
  7. 77Ismaeel MohammadM
  8. 27B. BourigeaudM
  9. 7J. DraxlerM
  10. 23N. SlitiM
  11. 10Erik ExpósitoF

Substitutes

  1. 70Younis AbdelrahmanF
  2. 18Jassem MohammedD
  3. 53Saleh Ahmed QassemG
  4. 20Hamad MansourM
  5. 15Mohammed Abdulla Al-IshaqM
  6. 6Luiz CearáM
  7. 75Nasser Adil BabikerD
  8. 11Suhaib GannanF
  9. 49Z. SassiD
  10. 5W. Troost-EkongD

Coach: Borja Jiménez

Betting markets

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.56
0.5 goalsOver96.4%Under3.6%
1.5 goalsOver84.5%Under15.5%
2.5 goalsOver64.7%Under35.3%
3.5 goalsOver42.6%Under57.4%
4.5 goalsOver24.3%Under75.7%

Market percentages come from our model's expected goals for each side. Fair odds are 100 ÷ probability.

Model comparison

Al-GharafaAl Ahli Doha
50%Form50%
50%Attack50%
50%Defence50%
50%Head to head50%
53%Expected goals47%
55%Overall45%

Last matches

Newest first
Al-Gharafa0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Al Ahli Doha0W 0D 0L · last 0

No finished matches yet.

Stars League table

Stars League table
#TeamP+/-Pts
1Al-Arabi SC1+63
2Al-Rayyan SC1+53
3Al Sadd1+43
4Qatar SC1+13
5Al Ahli Doha101
6Al-Gharafa101
7Al Shamal1-10
8Al-Sailiya1-50
9Al Shahaniya2-100
See full table ›

Season statistics

This season, all competitions we cover
StatAl-GharafaAl Ahli Doha
Played00
Wins00
Draws00
Losses00
Goals for (avg)00
Goals against (avg)00
Clean sheets00
Failed to score00
Best win streak00

Match preview

Al-Gharafa host Al Ahli Doha in the Stars League (Regular Season - 7) at Al Gharafa Stadium , Doha, with kick-off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 WAT.

Our prediction model makes Al-Gharafa slight favourites, giving Al-Gharafa a 42% chance of winning, 24% for the draw and 34% for Al Ahli Doha. Our tip is: Al-Gharafa or draw.

On the goals markets, we expect goals, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 and a 66% chance that both teams score.

Competition
Qatar Stars League
Date
Thursday, 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT
Venue
Al Gharafa Stadium , Doha

TodaysPrediction analysis team

Model-based football predictions. How our predictions work

Quick answers

When is Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?

Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha kicks off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time.

Which competition is Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha in?

The match is in the Qatar Stars League.

Where are Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha in the table?

Al-Gharafa are 6th and Al Ahli Doha are 5th in the Stars League.

Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?

Our prediction is Al-Gharafa or draw. Win probabilities: Al-Gharafa 42%, draw 24%, Al Ahli Doha 34%.

Will both teams score in Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?

We estimate a 66% chance that both teams score, so our BTTS tip is Yes.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?

We estimate a 65% chance of three or more goals, so our tip is Over 2.5 goals.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. They are statistical estimates. A 70% tip should still lose about three times in ten, so only stake what you can afford to lose.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions refresh automatically through the day as new data arrives, and every tip is marked right or wrong after full time.

More Stars League on Thu 22 Oct

FTAl Shahaniya 0-4 Al Sadd2 ✓

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